Hello my Friends, Traders and Interested.
Herewith again a new update to DEU 30 (German Dax INDEX). First, a big picture to illustrate what has happened in the past years.
Let's first take a look at the pink ascending channel. As you can see I draw two upper lines, a pink and a red one.
Why?
We saw from Oct. 2014 to March 2015 a very strong bullphase that jumped beyond the red upper line.
I called it now an "overshooting" top (black box). Because of the fact, that in the following years this level could not be maintained in the 5 waves (A, B, C, D, E).
I now use the red line as the relevant upper resitance channel line. But, maybe the pink line could also establish in the future as the real upper line. More about that later.
Currently we ve broken out of the ascending channel in Dec. 2018. We can see, that the pink lower line has just retested at the end of the last week. To give a clearer view to the situation, now in a zoomed version:
Here we can see, that the price did a nearly perfect retest after the Dez. 2018 breakout at the pink upper line. This is a sign, that the breakout to the upside might be confirmed now.
Another singn of now ongoing bearish behaviour is the red triangle. Triangle patterns are continuing patterns and we can see, that this triangle follows a bearish action.
There is a little bit space to the upside retest ( 200 points,... to 11.500 points) and this little upside space
coincides with the little upside space we have in the DJI. The DJI is near to a major resitance, but there is still a little space to this resistance.
Combining all the facts, I do expect a sharp bearmarket starting within this week. For the DAX I see a final target at around 8.800 points. We will see, what is going to happen. If my TA will work and the bearish action should start this week, I will frequently update it. If my TA will not work I will also comment it.
A few last words to my " BUT" I wrote above. The overshoot in March 2015 over the red upper line could be a correct wave. This would be fact, if the just happened break under the pink line will not result in a bearish action. Than I would expand the lower pink line and take the upper pink line as relevant,..... and delete the red.
Okay, Thanks to all of you for your interest.
As always, this TA is just educational, no trading advice. Trade on your own risk and always trade safe.
A Like and A Follow would make me happy.
Byeeeeee,
Sascha