Following the pattern I think there are initial signals (apart from SPX) toward to a point of contraction due in at approx. 22nd (ish?).10.2013. Maybe 18th? Level, hard to say. The Russell to be the biggest loser (?)
Good outline of the two basic probable scenarios. ascending necklines can work well, as long as the risk of failure - which in my experience is materially increased by a diagonal neckline - is well understood. Many a bear trap (which I take it is what the lower drawing outlines) has made a victim of the unwary with these.