DOW JONES The Cyclical Pivot that MUST hold.

Last week (Sep 03, see chart below) we gave a buy signal on Dow Jones (DJI) right at the bottom of its medium-term Channel Up, which quickly hit our 46100 Target:

This time we switch to a much wider and longer term outlook on the 1W time-frame as we are just a day before the Fed Rate Decision. The index has been trading within a strong Channel Up ever since the April 07 2025 market bottom, product of the Trade War correction early in 2024.

The 1D MA100 (red trend-line) crossed above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) forming a peculiar Bullish Cross, which interestingly enough, it is the 3rd time we see it since September 2020.

As a result, it is highly critical and as you can see, after such cross, the 1W MA50 has historically led the index higher.

What is perhaps even more critical however is the Pivot trend-line, which is essentially the former All Time High (ATH) turned into Support for the Channel Up pattern that have pushed the market higher since 2020.

As you can see, that level always held and the two rallies that we've had on the pattern like the current one, completed +25% and +22% rallies above it before an eventually correction that broke below the 1W MA50.

As a result, we could see another +20% rise at least, translating into a 54000 long-term Target, as long as both the 1W MA50 and the Pivot hold.

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