DJT and KNX Comparison 1 Week timeframe
---Composed this for a friend---
A comparison of a large trucking company and the DOW Jones Transportation Index. Using the DOW index to look for early signs that can affect the smaller logistics components.
I am bearish (negative) on Industrials. Why? At the most Macro -- President Trump does not want war, but, Congress is too divided for comprehensive infrastructure rebuilding.
Also at the macro level I'm very bearish on many mainstream stocks, at both DOW and S&P500 exhibit multi-year topping pattern - and, my opinion only stay afloat with accounting tricks.
other factors:
Overland transportation is (to a degree) dependent on vehicle sales - and I believe sales of new cars and light trucks have topped.
American consumer appears to be maxed out, and topping as well. Less need for movement of consumer purchases.
Long term - some (National) moves to grow food locally - and have less of the "2000 mile salad".
Trade war - less movement - more tariffs/ higher costs for non necessities.
What would make me bullish?:
a huge war
a huge natural disaster of an entire region - necessitating a national effort to keep that region supplied.
Cost cutting with new technology (no drivers?)...? not sure about this one...
A comparison of a large trucking company and the DOW Jones Transportation Index. Using the DOW index to look for early signs that can affect the smaller logistics components.
I am bearish (negative) on Industrials. Why? At the most Macro -- President Trump does not want war, but, Congress is too divided for comprehensive infrastructure rebuilding.
Also at the macro level I'm very bearish on many mainstream stocks, at both DOW and S&P500 exhibit multi-year topping pattern - and, my opinion only stay afloat with accounting tricks.
other factors:
Overland transportation is (to a degree) dependent on vehicle sales - and I believe sales of new cars and light trucks have topped.
American consumer appears to be maxed out, and topping as well. Less need for movement of consumer purchases.
Long term - some (National) moves to grow food locally - and have less of the "2000 mile salad".
Trade war - less movement - more tariffs/ higher costs for non necessities.
What would make me bullish?:
a huge war
a huge natural disaster of an entire region - necessitating a national effort to keep that region supplied.
Cost cutting with new technology (no drivers?)...? not sure about this one...