ptbrodie
Long

Technology Breakthroughs and the DOW at 40k

INDEX:DJY0   DJIA
Over the years we've seen consumer adoption of breakthrough technology spur huge economic growth. We saw it with the radio (~1920), the TV (~1948), and the PC (~1982).

If you go to Silicon Valley today, you will see people paying for coffee             in Bitcoin , cars driving themselves, VR             becoming common at home. You'll hear talk of CRISPR, and how it can be used to immunize humans retroactively from previously incurable viruses, or edit mutated cancer genes in real-time. And maybe you've heard of a guy named Elon Musk             .

The internet has matured, and the unprecedented technology that it has grown will be coming to market over the next 5 years. This is not like anything we've seen before.

Though we'll likely see a dip, the long term growth will be explosive.

Hold onto your butts.
StudMuffin
4 months ago
I have a hard time believing that CRISPR, VR, current state of AI, and Space is going to justify DOW to 40k. DOW is a bubble, which nearly burst when Fed claimed it was going to raise rates.
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ptbrodie StudMuffin
4 months ago
I used to agree, but people have been calling a top since 2009. We just broke ATH with over a year of consolidation beneath us.

Right now, almost everyone in the world has a super computer in their pocket.

On AI: you can get a refill on toilet paper by asking a speaker in your living room. Cars can drive *themselves*. And that is just the "current state". AI is coming at every aspect of your life.

On space: rockets can land without crashing.

On VR: this is something that most people still see as a novelty. Truth is it will have a massive impact in almost every industry. On top of that tech advances in VR contribute to advances in AI (GPUs).

On CRISPR: Not just healthcare. Think about the agricultural implications of gene editing.

On Bitcoin: well, it's bitcoin.

If you believe the Fed can manipulate the market as you suggest, then combined with all of this I think a continuation of our usual up and to the right is not so crazy.
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stckpkr70009c ptbrodie
4 months ago
One massive problem..... The very technology you speak of puts more people out of vs. the opposite.
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ptbrodie stckpkr70009c
4 months ago
You're right: just as cars put carriage makers and horse breeders out of work, these technologies will (and are) putting people out of work. The good news is that the history of technology has been that while many lose their jobs from technological breakthroughs, ultimately more jobs are created in the economy at large as a result.

There is a Coursera certificate right now, for example, called "Autonomous Car Engineering". Would have sounded crazy 5 years ago; new generations adapt into the new jobs.
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StudMuffin ptbrodie
4 months ago
All that stuff is great, its just that there is no way to know when it is going to be commercially viable. I think much of the technology increase we are seeing is really just a bubble that is about to burst. That will happen first and then the wheat and tares will be separated, then we will see growth. We are a long way away from most of these techs really benefiting productive capacity. There is such a science and technology fad/bubble going on that you hear about these amazing achievement with no real weight behind them - you can know that because even the idiots are ranting and raving about most of it, i.e., everyone thinks they are a theoretical physicist because they watched cosmos and get updates from "Ifuckinglovescience" facebook page. Its a total joke - its fluff that is going to come crashing hard -particularly consumer electronics.
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dericksim
4 months ago
We have not even cleared 20k and we are forecasting 40k now? Can we not be more practical and talk about present rather than future. Trading(betting) is about being right the very moment I open my position. A forecast of more than 15mins away is pointless. Unless you are Warren Buffet where the whole banking system owes you money, you can just sit back and collect rent.
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StudMuffin
4 months ago
Not only does you chart correlate with some tech, it also correlates with inflation. So, take your pick.
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