ChrisMoody

Trade Happens Once every 10 Years - 100% Track Record Since 1900

DJCFD:DJI   Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Trade Happens Once every 10 Years. 100% Track Record Since 1900.

Provided By Jake & Elliott Bernstein @ 2Chimps.net

Good Trade To Put In Your Journal...

See Chart Description for Specif Rules and Downloadable PDF written by Jake


Green Line = January in a year that ends in 5

Blue Line = December in a year that ends in 5

Rule - Monthly Chart. (See PDF for Details)

  • If We Get a Monthly Close Above January High Enter Long
  • Close Trade last day of the year.

Potential Symbols: DIA, SPY , Or Leveraged Versions...

No Losing years going back to 1900!

Only time trade did not work is 2005 and there was NO ENTRY Trigger.

Link to PDF:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7718...

Comments

"Dow Jones Industrial Average" -- Sell in "May" and go away Trading Strategy.
Sell on Market Open First Trading Day of May and Go Away.
Buy Back on Market Open First Trading Day of November.
Lets go back in time and see how this worked out with years ending with the number -- 8
This is for "Education Only" -- This "Is Not" a buy or sell recommendation.
This is for information only.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1918 -- Sold at 79.36
1918 -- Buy back at 85.74 -- Missed 6.38 point "Gain"
1919 -- Sold at ?
------------------------------------------------------------------
1928 -- Sold at 219.51
1928 -- Buy back at 257.58 -- Missed 38.07 point "Gain"
1929 -- Sold at -- ?
---------------------------------------------------------------------
1938 -- Sold at 110.09
1938 -- Buy back at 154.91 -- Missed 44.82 point "Gain"
1939 -- Sold at -- ?
---------------------------------------------------------------------
1948 -- Sold at 181.09
1948 -- Buy back at 189.76 -- Missed 8.67 point "Gain"
1949 -- Sold at -- ?
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1958 -- Sold at 461.12
1958 -- Buy back at 545.16 -- Missed 84.04 point "Gain"
1959 -- Sold at -- ?
---------------------------------------------------------------------
1968 -- Sold at 914.53
1968 -- Buy back at 946.23 -- Missed 31.70 point "Gain"
1969 -- Sold at -- ?
---------------------------------------------------------------------
1978 -- Sold at 837.32
1978 -- Buy back at 823.11 -- Missed 14.21 point "Loss"
1979 -- Sold at -- ?
---------------------------------------------------------------------
1988 -- Sold at 2026.20
1988 -- Buy back at 2130.70 -- Missed 104.50 point "Gain"
1989 -- Sold at -- ?
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1998 -- Sold at 9147.07
1998 -- Buy back at 8595.70 -- Missed 551.37 point "Loss"
1999 -- Sold at -- ?
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 -- Sold at 13,056.57
2008 -- Buy back at 9,326.04 -- Missed 3,730.53 point "Loss"
2009 -- Sold at -- ?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018 -- Sold at 24,117.29
2018 -- Buy back at -- ? --------- Missed -- ? -- point "Loss or Gain" -- Only time will tell.
2019 -- Sold at -- ? --------------- Total point "Loss or Gain" -- ? -- Only time will tell.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please take the time to fill in the missing pieces on your own.
"One Eye Jim"
+5 Reply
"Elliott Wave Patterns" -- and -- "Daily Line Charts" -- Check This Out -- "Elliott Wave Students"
======================================================================================
Starting Date = "2018 Market Highs" -- "DOW" -- "SP 500" -- SP 100" -- "SP 400" -- "NASDAQ"
They might suprise "You" -- " ? "

This "Is Not" a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
This is for "Education Only"

"One Eye Jim"
+4 Reply
Curve fitting + too small of a sample size. Interesting nonetheless though.
+4 Reply
ChrisMoody ITM.Trading
There is no question on the Sample size being too small if we were looking to develop a System...you absolutely correct.

However I would say that there have been many "Seasonal" type trades found using Presidential cycles, Years that end in X#, Specific years in Presidential Cycle based on what term they are in. These have worked so far...and the sample rate is low. This is too small of a sample set to base an entire trading plan on, but putting it in a basket of trades like the ones mentioned above....just works.

Where I am a little taken back is when you say it's Curve Fitting. I develop systems for a living...and Jake is one of the most respected Trading System Developers of our time. We found that years that end in 5 typically end UP for the year. To capitalize off a entire years move the highest time frame is 99.9% of the time the most reliable. Therefore a Monthly Close above the January High was a common sense one to test. This Trade Setup was noticed and announced before 2005 using the Monthly close. It didn't use to be a weekly or daily close and we changed it to Monthly after 2005. That would be Curve Fitting....Unrealistic...and in my opinion unethical.

Sample set too low to base an entire system on = YES. Curve Fitting...I have to respectfully disagree.
+1 Reply
ITM.Trading ChrisMoody
Thanks for the reply Chris :)
Curve fitting doesn't have to be intentional and I am not saying it was intentional, so there is no need to mention ethics here. I understand that you simply did this as a matter of curiosity and I still did find it interesting despite flaws that you are already aware of.
Typically over optimization and curve fitting result in smaller sample sizes so they are very closely related concepts. In this case the 'years ending in 5' universe constraint has been applied to a simple entry rule. This has given you perfect expectancy but it has also reduced the sample size dramatically. However there is no real logical reason why you can't apply your entry rule to every year instead of just the years that end in 5. As a suggestion it would be interesting to see this same entry rule applied to every year over the past century. Even if that lowered the expectancy to the 55-60% range it would be a lot more meaningful and robust IMHO.
+3 Reply
My lower post dated 5-6-2018 "Is Not" 100% correct -- "Sorry"
I did not use Monthly Chart Opening Price.
I used Weekly Chart Opening Price on most if not all prices.

"One Eye Jim"
+1 Reply
Add This to the post below.
==========================
The -- "Weekly" -- "Daily" -- Sell Signal -- talked about below could be.
a = "Short Term"
b = "Medium Term"
c = "Long Term"
===============================================================
"Only Time Will Tell"
+1 Reply
So, myself and several others have all confirmed that the S&P, along every other Index, is at a rare time in the millenium long bull run where the trend HAS to reverse. It is MAXED to the cent, a 130 year 5-3 Elliot Wave that is weakening to the point of negative beta for the fist time positivly in 13 years- yet- it is still weakening and a Depression, actually long LONG, overdue, is a necessity for our market systems to maintain equilaibrium and seasonality and a Bear/Bull trend pattern that would need to - at the VERY LEAST - be able to extend 3 (or 5, but it is SU
PER weak as it is, Divergence city on every index. The
VIX has calls ITM up to 35 in like JUNE only and I cant even unload puts under 40 on any expiration chart. This is a good thing. our dollar needs to regain value, the "emergin markets" and commodities like gold, crude, all sorts of unusual crap, the LARGER the chop since the last... 2007ish, the bigger the pump- but no dump. Dow theory and hirsch cyclyes - seasonlaity- the buying pressure isnt there...our market must "accumulatt" and give some wind to the bears sails, some never having a bullish week in 130 yeras. and the higher the historical price, the better. All the right volume, open int. and volatility moves, huge positive divergences, harmonic scythe patterns to the downside- this is the 8th cycle of it's entire existince where it would be in a drop.. i mean imagine what it would look like too? No. Its done. it makes no sense.We need to reinflate our Dollars value and give some cash flow into our backbone to be able to remain bullish ina new industrial revolution.
Do you guys really think thats possible? The 3x leverage dBeata short is even cranking waves up for the first time in 13 years... is there some sort of other "litmus" test to lay down?
Reply
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