QuantitativeExhaustion
Long

Elliott Wave Grand Super Cycle for United States Economy

INDEX:DJY0   DJIA
1907 9 36
In this chart I put together an idea of how an Elliott Wave Grand Super Cycle would look for the United States. I also included data from the Federal Reserve , U.S. total non-farm payrolls, to mark what would be the beginning of the end for U.S. economic expansion. It is obvious the United States saw it's last growth expansion ending in what we call the "tech bubble" or ".com bubble". The tech bubble extended the U.S. economic world dominance in the 1990's. The computer and internet growth in the 1990's caused a U.S. stock market bubble. We can see the U.S. economic expansion in the chart above, including Elliott Wave counts marking an extended ending of a 5th wave Super Cycle (Wave 3) in 2000-01. The post bubble brought on the first sign of our slowing economic expansion. We can see this in both the Federal Reserve U.S. total non-farm Payrolls and with the DJIA             chart marking an A-B-C corrective wave. The Federal Reserve acted quickly to address the slowing economic expansions by quickly lowering it's federal funds rate, which caused the next bubble for the U.S, the U.S. housing bubble (peaking in 2007). When the Federal Reserve was asked 'what prompted them to engage in such rapid lowering of interest rates', the answer was September 11th, which tells me the Federal Reserve acted on emotion rather than planning. The U.S. Federal Reserve emotional reaction caused not only a housing bubble in the U.S., but also around the world, which caused commodity to spike to all-time highs. After oil             reached $147 a barrel in June-July of 2008 and fell to less than $100 in a short period of time, the panic selling started taking the U.S. equities market with it (seen in Wave 4).

I will later go in deeper chart analysis on our current wave 5.

The Elliott Wave Principle posits that collective investor psychology, or crowd psychology, moves between optimism and pessimism in natural sequences. These mood swings create patterns evidenced in the price movements of markets at every degree of trend or time scale.

In Elliott's model, market prices alternate between an impulsive, or motive phase, and a corrective phase on all time scales of trend, as the illustration shows. Impulses are always subdivided into a set of 5 lower-degree waves, alternating again between motive and corrective character, so that waves 1, 3, and 5 are impulses, and waves 2 and 4 are smaller retraces of waves 1 and 3. Corrective waves subdivide into 3 smaller-degree waves starting with a five-wave counter-trend impulse, a retrace, and another impulse. In a bear market the dominant trend is downward, so the pattern is reversed—five waves down and three up. Motive waves always move with the trend, while corrective waves move against it.

The classification of a wave at any particular degree can vary, though practitioners generally agree on the standard order of degrees (approximate durations given):

Grand Supercycle: multi-century
Supercycle: multi-decade (about 40–70 years or longer under and Elliot Extension)
Cycle: one year to several years (or even several decades under an Elliott Extension)
Primary: a few months to a couple of years
Intermediate: weeks to months
Minor: weeks
Minute: days
Minuette: hours
Subminuette: minutes

Great Noticable Effort
+1 Reply
KhalidAl-Alawi
2 years ago
this is the second time I read about something like this, I mean the history is repeating itself, the other one was talking about a great recision similar to the 1928 1929, compared charts of that time with a current chart of DJIA. (there is a documentary movie called Inequality For All, it is talking about similarities between that time and 2010)
+2 Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO KhalidAl-Alawi
2 years ago
Yes, there are a ton of events that are similar to the 1930 period and events that are taking place now. I also went to the librbary that took news headlines from the pas 100 years in the U.S. also showed history rhyming in cyclical date/time. I'm going to look for this doumentary, Inequality For All. Thanks for the heads up
+3 Reply
Very nice chart. Would you consider making a more detailed count using a log scale? I've tried both and you can end up with an alternate count with it. Thanks for sharing.
+2 Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
I'll try it out sometime
+2 Reply
G13Man QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
have u read Harry Dents population cycles and economic cycles ?
+1 Reply
I have not
+1 Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
snapshot


Did you know the very first average on May 26, 1896 was 40.94 ?
+2 Reply
Iwantobelieve
7 days ago
So, if i have fullfully understood, grand super cycle wave 1 to wave 2, about 200 years, but wave 4 to wave 5 only 10 years, and i won't say anything concerning the length of wave 3 and wave 4... I hope for you, you have studied a lot during these last three years guys.
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