Good outline of the two basic probable scenarios. ascending necklines can work well, as long as the risk of failure - which in my experience is materially increased by a diagonal neckline - is well understood. Many a bear trap (which I take it is what the lower drawing outlines) has made a victim of the unwary with these.
Following the pattern I think there are initial signals (apart from SPX) toward to a point of contraction due in at approx. 22nd (ish?).10.2013. Maybe 18th? Level, hard to say. The Russell to be the biggest loser (?)