USD Indx - A daily Hanging Man in the third bullish wave
Referring to my previous post on DXY (see link below), point "b" happened, so USD rallied further after the consolidation. Still no correction on the daily chart. No doubt, this trend wave has become a lot more straight and stronger than I could have immagined. However even the strongest trend waves should have corrections. When and from where I don't know, but
a) when it starts, will be obvious on the 4 Hrs chart - that's why we should never chase or call the top, but trade on the corrective break rather
b) the later it happens, the more agressive and volatile the pull back will be due to the probably already huge long positioning on the mkt
Daily: Still a very bullish Ichimoku setup, but lines started to flat out a bit. Chikou is still in open space, no Kumo overshade in the future. We have three bullish trend lines working, the steepest is matching the Tenkan Sen line now at 84,75, which makes the first support. ADX is still too high, MACD has an obvious negative divergence now to Price.
The most important observation from yesterday is the price action itself. The candle is a Hanging Man, with no overlap with the previous day's candle!!! In this form his is quite a reliable reversal candle.
Price action traders suggest to sell this pattern either at 50 % retracement or at the break of its low. Well, today we had the 50 % retracement.
This could end the third wave of the recent bullish trend. The word "could" is again very important, as I have thought a few times a correction would be imminent.
4 Hrs: Yes it is still bullish. But here we also see a doji followed by a hanging man candle. Still a lot of room until we can talk about a possible counter trend (correction). The key level is what we strictly have to follow: that is 84,67 - 84,80. By the time it may be attacked again, the 100 WMA will likely catch up there too. We also have there horizontal key support, Kijun Sen and Senkou B (future Kumo orange line, the 52 candles average).
Strategy for now: Trade the correction when it happens, not when you think it may happen! Actually you can trade now as well, but that is nothing else but a top hunting based on a beliefe of a correction.
a) when it starts, will be obvious on the 4 Hrs chart - that's why we should never chase or call the top, but trade on the corrective break rather
b) the later it happens, the more agressive and volatile the pull back will be due to the probably already huge long positioning on the mkt
Daily: Still a very bullish Ichimoku setup, but lines started to flat out a bit. Chikou is still in open space, no Kumo overshade in the future. We have three bullish trend lines working, the steepest is matching the Tenkan Sen line now at 84,75, which makes the first support. ADX is still too high, MACD has an obvious negative divergence now to Price.
The most important observation from yesterday is the price action itself. The candle is a Hanging Man, with no overlap with the previous day's candle!!! In this form his is quite a reliable reversal candle.
Price action traders suggest to sell this pattern either at 50 % retracement or at the break of its low. Well, today we had the 50 % retracement.
This could end the third wave of the recent bullish trend. The word "could" is again very important, as I have thought a few times a correction would be imminent.
4 Hrs: Yes it is still bullish. But here we also see a doji followed by a hanging man candle. Still a lot of room until we can talk about a possible counter trend (correction). The key level is what we strictly have to follow: that is 84,67 - 84,80. By the time it may be attacked again, the 100 WMA will likely catch up there too. We also have there horizontal key support, Kijun Sen and Senkou B (future Kumo orange line, the 52 candles average).
Strategy for now: Trade the correction when it happens, not when you think it may happen! Actually you can trade now as well, but that is nothing else but a top hunting based on a beliefe of a correction.
