I consider the normal range for the US dollar to be the area shown by the green box. What keeps it at a high level within this range is doubt about the strength of the world economy, which encourages people to hold dollars. A current factor preventing its fall towards the bottom of the range is the prospect of an early rise in American interest rates, while other major economies cling to low rates.
Thanks for posting, and like your thoughts, maybe there's not as much downward in the dollar as a lot think...not many,if any countries are looking to raise rates in the near future as the fed keep hawking about!! Perhaps they want the dollar about where it is until election anyway..cheers Ron.