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Interestingly, my curved down-line meets the Long-term Suport Line at 1st April 2019, the date BREXIT comes into effect. Two forces pressing the Euro down in its relationship with the US Dollar are rising interest rates in the USA and fears of BREXIT. When it transpires that BREXIT will make little change to trading between UK and Europe (and the world), the Euro ...
The trend is downward, in a curved line.
The Euro still heads south v US Dollar, even though to the East of my previously drawn curved down-arrow.
I reckon that the Euro will continue to decline against the US Dollar over the coming months. Recovery will await a successful outcome to BREXIT negotiations. First we will see great drama and stress in the negotiations, before the parties cave in and agree a Soft BREXIT (Great Britain maintaining its customs union with the EU).
Echoing the previous downtrend of the Euro against the US Dollar, we see the down-curve sharpening at this moment in time.
The Language of War ("Give way or we will punish you") does not achieve peace. Trump and his allies (Putin, Netanyau, Erdogan, Kim Yung Un, etc.) are using this language. Words of War tend to lead to war. Let the markets quiver. If the language does not change sharply, we are heading for a Bear Market, .. and maybe worse.
News that ECB is considering winding down its QE programme brought a rally in the Euro against the US Dollar. However, the downtrend will probably resume.
Any threat of downtrend dissolves as the indexes surge ahead.
For a while the slope of the slide of the Euro against the US Dollar was easing. Current political difficulties in Italy (what is unusual about that?) seems to be the cause of an acceleration in the slide. The Euro has a long way to go before the trend will reverse.
The Two-year Support Line was tested in March and April, but the markets rallied during May, breaking through this year's Resistance Line. The rally has run out of steam, and it looks like this Support Line will be tested again shortly. My guess is that the chart will break through this time, resuming the downtrend.
The Downtrend in the Indexes has been stalled by recent good employment figures and low inflation. However, the peak of January 2018 still shows as the apex of the QE and ZIRP era, from which the chart must descend. In the meantime, we wait to see if the present resurgence will continue until the January peak is matched, or if the downtrend will resume before the ...
The Eirp continues downward against the US Dpllar, as I predicted.
Good employment figures boosted the INDEXES and postponed the Downswing, which will happen nonetheless.
Well, that bounce was, indeed, short-lasting. The current dip promises to be substantial.
The imminent upswig of the Idexes is likely to be short-lasting, as the slope of the Downtrend intensifies. (If not, consider that the downtrend may be suspended for some months).
The Euro will, no doubt, continue to down-trend against the US Dollar for the rest of this year, as Quantitative Tightening and rate rises in the USA contrast with continuing Quantitative Easing and rate conservatism in Europe.
The 8-year cycle from 1995 to 2003 ended when the Dot-com burst happened. The 6-year cycle form 2003 to 2009 came tumbling down with the recession caused by the banking crisis. The 7-year Recovery cycle from 2009 to 2016 was driven by Quantitative Easing and Zero Rate policy. Driving the present downturn in the Indexes is upward pressure on bank rates. Unless ...
The shape of the Downtrend