KrunchieKilleen

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About me Krunchie commits €100 per month to a punt on stocks and shares and gives an account of this in his blog: www.SharesPunt.Blogspot.ie
Last visit Joined 2 years ago Dublin, Ireland KrunchieKilleen www.SharesPunt.blogspot.ie
Markets Allocation
46 % forex 16 % stocks 8 % indices 30 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
EURUSD 40% | 120 SPX 14% | 43 NAS 14% | 42 DIA 7% | 23
KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen CRH, M, Short , 24 days ago
CRH: CRH: TIME TO SELL
16 0 3
CRH, M Short
CRH: TIME TO SELL

Having fallen a little over the last 5 days, should we expect CRH to recover? Not at all! With a P/E of c. 27, the stock is over-priced. Even with a continuation of profit growth at almost 8%, a significant fall must be anticipated. I would say: sell now and buy later after the price tumbles to around £22 (LSE price).

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen SPX500, W, Short , a month ago
SPX500: S&P 500 TO CRASH
192 0 10
SPX500, W Short
S&P 500 TO CRASH

S&P 500 to crash from 2277 to 1600, or even 1300? It may seem unbelievable, but this would be a drop in P/E from the excessively high level of 25.5 down to its median level of 14.65. Trump's economic policy, negatie on trade, is likely to see a contraction in GDP rather than a rise. Tomorrow is the first of February, so we can expect to see prices falling now ...

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen BABA, D, a month ago
BABA: ALI BABA UPTREND DEFINED
60 0 2
BABA, D
ALI BABA UPTREND DEFINED

The pink trend lines are my original depiction of the uptrend. The green arrow shows my original prediction of an upswing. The pink oval area shows how the graph dropped further than I envisaged, with the consequent redrawing of the trend lines (blue) and the blue arrow showing my revised prediction of the upswing. The graph bounced off my blue Resistance Line and ...

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen DOWI, M, Short , a month ago
DOWI: DOW ETC. TO HAVE A NICE FALL
111 0 6
DOWI, M Short
DOW ETC. TO HAVE A NICE FALL

The chart shows the Dow Industrial Index to be at a peak. Wall Street Journal gives the P/E of Dow Industrials (Current price over earnings for 2016) at 21.44. Nasdaq and S&P are even more extended, at 25, and Dow Utility at 28. Meanwhile DAX is around 18. Pressure will now be on the American indexes to plunge towards a P/E of 18 (but based on estimated earnings ...

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen BABA, W, Long , 2 months ago
BABA: ALIBABA UPTREND COMMENCES
36 0 3
BABA, W Long
ALIBABA UPTREND COMMENCES

My original prediction of an uptrend for ALIBABA (red trend lines and green arrow) was a bit out, so I have re-drawn the lines, showing a somewhat gentler upslope, but I expect a little hesitation over the next few days

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen DOWI, M, Short , 2 months ago
DOWI: DOW: NEXT IT'S DOWN
95 0 9
DOWI, M Short
DOW: NEXT IT'S DOWN

Patterns repeat. Share prices have hit a zenith and the next movement will be down.

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen BABA, W, Long , 2 months ago
BABA: ALIBABA TO BREAK OUT OF DOWN-SWING
95 0 6
BABA, W Long
ALIBABA TO BREAK OUT OF DOWN-SWING

This week ALIBABA must break through either the Resistance Line of the downswing or the Support Line of the uptrend. I guess the Support Line will hold and the next swing is upwards. It could be an upswing of 205, if the green trend arrow is followed.

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen NAS100, W, Short , 2 months ago
NAS100: NASDAQ NO BREAKOUT
51 0 4
NAS100, W Short
NASDAQ NO BREAKOUT

The curved line I first drew 3 months' ago still holds, despite a near break-out on Friday last. Downtrend not yet evident, perhaps imminent. Watch to see if Resistance Line R is breached this week.

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen EIRL, W, Long , 2 months ago
EIRL: EIRL Irish Shares ETF shaken by BREXIT
8 0 5
EIRL, W Long
EIRL Irish Shares ETF shaken by BREXIT

While many of the leading Irish companies in the EIRL basket have an international footprint, the upward slope of the ETF from 2012 to June 2016 (if we leave out the excessive exuberance of 2014) closely matches the growth of the Irish economy in that period. Anxiety over the BREXIT referendum flattened the top of the chart in the months leading up to the ...

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen DOWI, M, 3 months ago
DOWI: DOWI PRESEDENTIAL ERAS
68 0 4
DOWI, M
DOWI PRESEDENTIAL ERAS

The chart maps the progress of DOWI (The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, blue) against US GDP (green) and National Debt (red) over the last 5 presedential terms. Economic growth was steady under Reagan and the first Bush and accelerated under Clinton, but with "irrational exuberance" in the stock market. The second Bush saw the collapse of the Dot-Com boom and ...

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen NAS100, W, 3 months ago
NAS100: NASDAQ 100 SHORT BOUNCE
46 0 3
NAS100, W
NASDAQ 100 SHORT BOUNCE

I reckon a Clinton victory in tomorrow's presedential election will boost the NASDAQ 100 and bring it through the Resistance Line, but a Trump victory will cause it to bounce back down. Meannwhile, share prices have been held in restraint for a whole year by the anticipation of FED rate increases. It is now clear that restoring normal interest rates will take ...

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen NAS100, W, Short , 4 months ago
NAS100: NASDAQ 100 DOWNTREND BEGINS
57 0 2
NAS100, W Short
NASDAQ 100 DOWNTREND BEGINS

I reckon the top has been hit and the downtrend begun.

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen NAS100, D, Short , 4 months ago
NAS100: NASDAQ 100 HITS TOP OF PARABOLA
50 0 3
NAS100, D Short
NASDAQ 100 HITS TOP OF PARABOLA

The trend-lines in the NASDAQ 100 are still upwards, but i believe we are now seeing the top of the Parabola. the present upswing, I guess, will not go above the previous high, and indicate the beginning of a downtrend.

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen GBPEUR, M, 4 months ago
GBPEUR: GBP/EUR SINKS TOO LOW
44 0 1
GBPEUR, M
GBP/EUR SINKS TOO LOW

At the end of 2015, GBP soared to €1.42, on the back of better economic performance than Europe. This was too high for Britain's terms of trade, and Bank of England welcomed the fall in value of Sterling as the date of the Brexit Referendum approached. Of course, it was thought that Britain would vote to remain and that the pound would bounce back. Now sterling ...

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen DXY, M, 5 months ago
DXY: DXY: US Dollar Index
32 1 3
DXY, M
DXY: US Dollar Index

I consider the normal range for the US dollar to be the area shown by the green box. What keeps it at a high level within this range is doubt about the strength of the world economy, which encourages people to hold dollars. A current factor preventing its fall towards the bottom of the range is the prospect of an early rise in American interest rates, while other ...

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen NAS100, W, Short , 5 months ago
NAS100: NASDAQ 100 THREATENS BREAKOUT
91 3 4
NAS100, W Short
NASDAQ 100 THREATENS BREAKOUT

The NASDAQ 100 has been rising since 2009 and is now at the top of the range of its uptrend. The graph looks like it might break out of this range, but fear of a fairly imminent FED interest rate rise should keep share prices in check. I guess that, instead of breaking out, it will tumble towards the bottom of the range.

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen NAS100, W, 5 months ago
NAS100: NASDAQ 100 MAY HAVE PEAKED
58 1 4
NAS100, W
NASDAQ 100 MAY HAVE PEAKED

The top of the NASDAQ curve has flattened off, making it doubtful if it is going to rise any further. Perhaps share prices will ease back in anticipation of a FED rate rise later in the year. I expect a downswing now and wait to see if it will be big enough to drag the index into a down-trend.

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen EURUSD, W, 6 months ago
EURUSD: EUR/USD WEDGED
46 0 5
EURUSD, W
EUR/USD WEDGED

The Euro is wedged in between a flat Resistance Line and a mildly rising Support Line. It is likely to dip back to the Support Line now, but what will happen next? It must break through either the Support or the Resistance in the not too distant future. Perhaps the imminent rise in FED interest rate (which punters apparently expect by December) will be enough to ...

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