KrunchieKilleen

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About me Krunchie commits €100 per month to a punt on stocks and shares and gives an account of this in his blog: www.SharesPunt.Blogspot.ie
Joined Dublin, Ireland KrunchieKilleen
Markets Allocation
44 % forex 19 % stocks 8 % indices 29 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
EURUSD 39% | 120 SPX 14% | 43 NAS 14% | 43 DIA 7% | 23
KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen NASX, M, Short ,
NASX: DOW & NASDAQ 7 YEAR CYCLES
34 3 3
NASX, M Short
DOW & NASDAQ 7 YEAR CYCLES

If the markets move in seven year cycles, then there are two ways of looking at the present manifestation. First, the Bubble of 2014 was not sufficiently burst, and a collapse is imminent. Second, there was a sufficient correction in 2014, and we will continue in a Bull Market until 2021. It is likely that world-wide policies of Quantitative Easing and Low ...

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen NAS100, M, Short ,
NAS100: NASDAQ TO TUMBLE
45 0 2
NAS100, M Short
NASDAQ TO TUMBLE

February 2017, I made a premature prediction of a tumble in share prices (Line A). It looks like the tumble is about to happen at last (Line B) . We are probably seeing the beginning of a Bear Market to take us into 2018.

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen CARZ, M, Short ,
CARZ: MOTOR INDUSTRY: IT'S DOWN, DOWN, DOWN FROM HERE
11 0 4
CARZ, M Short
MOTOR INDUSTRY: IT'S DOWN, DOWN, DOWN FROM HERE

Motor Cars are obsolescent technology. They promised transport to any destination at any time of day or night. The present reality is gridlock, destinations inacessible, unsustainable road building, air pollution. E-cars are not the answer, but a new transport technology of capsules travelling in tubes, described at https://krunchiescab.blogspot.ie/ The Motor ...

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen BABA, D, Short ,
BABA: BABA PEAKS: TAKE PROFIT!
120 0 4
BABA, D Short
BABA PEAKS: TAKE PROFIT!

It looks like Ali Baba has peaked for now. Time to take profit.

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen CRH, W,
CRH: CRH TO KEEP FALLING
9 0 1
CRH, W
CRH TO KEEP FALLING

With a P/E that is still over 21, even though it may rally from its present low, it looks inevitable that CRH, like American shares in general, will continue to fall for a considerable time. A substantial rise in earnings is necessary to maintain current price levels. European shares trade at a P/E of around 14 and American shares must correct to similar levels. I ...

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen SPY, D, Short ,
SPY: ANTICIPATED S&P DOWNSWING BEGINS
82 0 3
SPY, D Short
ANTICIPATED S&P DOWNSWING BEGINS

Bouncing off Resistance Line R today seems to indicate a downswing. I guess we will see a movement somewhat along the track described by the green arrow. Looking back next month, we will say that the downtrend began on the 1st of March.

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen SPY, 60, Short ,
SPY: S&P DOWNSWING COMMENCING
191 1 2
SPY, 60 Short
S&P DOWNSWING COMMENCING

The upswing appears to be petering out. Monday's market should show if the next downswing is starting.

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen SPY, W,
SPY: S&P: WATCH AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
49 0 3
SPY, W
S&P: WATCH AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS NEXT

Pulling out of its recent down-swing, we watch to see if the index will be constrained by our speculative Resistance Line (purple), or if it will crash through this line to resume the up-trend. The up-trend has already proceeded beyond reason, and I won't be taking a long position. Should it bounce off the purple line, however, I am ready to resume a short.

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen SPY, 30, Short ,
SPY: S&P DOWN CHANNEL EMERGING
55 0 4
SPY, 30 Short
S&P DOWN CHANNEL EMERGING

I think the downchannel of the SVP is emerging, and I have replaced my previous "Indicative Resistance Line" (green) with my new "Emerging Resistance Line" (blue). Time, then, not for exiting the short, but for strengthening it!

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen SPY, 30, Short ,
SPY: S&P, DOW, NASDAQ: MONITORING THE DOWNSWING
42 0 7
SPY, 30 Short
S&P, DOW, NASDAQ: MONITORING THE DOWNSWING

S&P 500 and DOW 100 reached a peak on 1 Mar 2017, ending a charge that ommenced last November. The trend-line, "Long-term down-slope," indicates the possible top of the down-slope of the potentially-emerging Bear Market. If so, there will be upswings and downswings within this down-trend. The "Indicative Resistance LIne" indicates a possible marker (Resistance ...

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen SPY, W, Short ,
SPY: DOW AND NASDAQ FOLLOW S&P DOWN
64 1 6
SPY, W Short
DOW AND NASDAQ FOLLOW S&P DOWN

The Dow, (here echoed in the DIA ETF on the DOW 100 shown green), quickly followed the S&P, (here echoed in the SPV ETF on the S&P 500, shown blue), and then the NASDAQ (here echoed in the QQQ ETF on the NASDAQ, shown blue), joined in the dip. It is too soon to say if this is the beginning of a downtrend, but why not, since the indexes are overvalued?

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen SPY, M, Short ,
SPY: Short on Social & Poor 500 ETF
54 0 4
SPY, M Short
Short on Social & Poor 500 ETF

I am betting that the Social & Poor index will take a bit of a tumble. While it will probably sink over the next three years right down to $160, my initial bet is to the 5-year Support Line, exiting the bet at $224.

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen CRH, M, Short ,
CRH: CRH: TIME TO SELL
25 0 3
CRH, M Short
CRH: TIME TO SELL

Having fallen a little over the last 5 days, should we expect CRH to recover? Not at all! With a P/E of c. 27, the stock is over-priced. Even with a continuation of profit growth at almost 8%, a significant fall must be anticipated. I would say: sell now and buy later after the price tumbles to around £22 (LSE price).

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen SPX500, W, Short ,
SPX500: S&P 500 TO CRASH
205 0 11
SPX500, W Short
S&P 500 TO CRASH

S&P 500 to crash from 2277 to 1600, or even 1300? It may seem unbelievable, but this would be a drop in P/E from the excessively high level of 25.5 down to its median level of 14.65. Trump's economic policy, negatie on trade, is likely to see a contraction in GDP rather than a rise. Tomorrow is the first of February, so we can expect to see prices falling now ...

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen BABA, D,
BABA: ALI BABA UPTREND DEFINED
61 0 3
BABA, D
ALI BABA UPTREND DEFINED

The pink trend lines are my original depiction of the uptrend. The green arrow shows my original prediction of an upswing. The pink oval area shows how the graph dropped further than I envisaged, with the consequent redrawing of the trend lines (blue) and the blue arrow showing my revised prediction of the upswing. The graph bounced off my blue Resistance Line and ...

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen DOWI, M, Short ,
DOWI: DOW ETC. TO HAVE A NICE FALL
129 0 7
DOWI, M Short
DOW ETC. TO HAVE A NICE FALL

The chart shows the Dow Industrial Index to be at a peak. Wall Street Journal gives the P/E of Dow Industrials (Current price over earnings for 2016) at 21.44. Nasdaq and S&P are even more extended, at 25, and Dow Utility at 28. Meanwhile DAX is around 18. Pressure will now be on the American indexes to plunge towards a P/E of 18 (but based on estimated earnings ...

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen BABA, W, Long ,
BABA: ALIBABA UPTREND COMMENCES
38 0 4
BABA, W Long
ALIBABA UPTREND COMMENCES

My original prediction of an uptrend for ALIBABA (red trend lines and green arrow) was a bit out, so I have re-drawn the lines, showing a somewhat gentler upslope, but I expect a little hesitation over the next few days

KrunchieKilleen KrunchieKilleen DOWI, M, Short ,
DOWI: DOW: NEXT IT'S DOWN
115 0 9
DOWI, M Short
DOW: NEXT IT'S DOWN

Patterns repeat. Share prices have hit a zenith and the next movement will be down.

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