The chart above explains.
This chart is best read together with the earlier one I posted on EURUSD.
Good luck.
P/S : Do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
This chart is best read together with the earlier one I posted on EURUSD.
Good luck.
P/S : Do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
Comment:
The last few days brings more CERTAINTY to the market. And with it, we can see BOLD moves happening. But we need to be looking at it in the right way if we want to understand what is actually the market is heading. What I can see is that the market is setting things up for the coming BIG move. I can see this happening across a few major FX pairs.
With certainty come drastic moves. I think the market seems to be in a hurry, yet cautious. As in the end of a critical journey, the final movement is done in a 'measured pace'.
Now, we can see that price keeps bouncing at the reversed 'D'. I am sure many would be thinking when it would touch 1.1125? Or would it ever go up that 'high' after falling below 1.1000? If you want to know the answer, follow closely and just observe what the market is doing. You need to pay close attention and be able to see what most people can't.
With certainty come drastic moves. I think the market seems to be in a hurry, yet cautious. As in the end of a critical journey, the final movement is done in a 'measured pace'.
Now, we can see that price keeps bouncing at the reversed 'D'. I am sure many would be thinking when it would touch 1.1125? Or would it ever go up that 'high' after falling below 1.1000? If you want to know the answer, follow closely and just observe what the market is doing. You need to pay close attention and be able to see what most people can't.
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
Now, after seeing the 3 charts above, do you finally see what I meant by 'market is moving in CERTAINTY'?
Obviously, if we pay close enough attention, the market is not setting things up for the NEXT BIG MOVE. And it should be coming soon. Want to know WHEN? Well, as I said - in measured pace.
Obviously, if we pay close enough attention, the market is not setting things up for the NEXT BIG MOVE. And it should be coming soon. Want to know WHEN? Well, as I said - in measured pace.
Comment:
The DXY as in the Dollar $
Recently we hear a lot about de-$. The thing we hear and tend to belief is that countries started to trade in their own currency and not using the $. It sound very logical and simple. Why do we need the dollar. And so many would tend to belief that sooner or later, the $ would lose its primacy as a reserve currency and fall. Many would start to SELL $ and BUY Euro.
But is it as simple as that - countries outside US starts trading with each other in their OWN currency? Actually, what we should be asking is IF these countries can have CAPITAL for INVESTMENT without the $. Obviously the answer is NOT possible simply because nearly all the WEALTH in this world is still operating in $ - as in the EuroDollar system. If would be foolish to think that China can now be the new provider for CAPITAL for all those CAIPTAL starved countries wanting to have money to start production in their countries. That is why 'decoupling' and dedollarization must not be seen from a COMMODITY angle. It MUST be seen from a CAPITAL point of view.
And so now, without capital for investment, production would always lag behind population growth. This is the recipe for higher prices - INFLATION. I believe we are going to have higher prices for a long time to come.
What is Uncle Sam going to do then? I think he will just sit back for now and wait. He can wait for as long as needed until those people come back begging for CAPITAL again. As for now there is no other currency that is able to finance the world.
What is CHINA doing. Actually, they are quite happy with the current situation. Why? It is so simple. With the whole world starved of capital, they can't increase production and because of this, China can continue to sell to the whole world and continue to prosper - always accumulating wealth. With wealth, comes capital. At the moment, China is the country in the world that need not require $ capital as they have adequate for just their own use. The still can't export capital yet, notwithstanding all we hear about the BRI. China now only need A LOF OF raw commodity (Oil/iron/chemicals) to power its production and export business.
So now, do you think China is piss off with Uncle Sam and is really friendly with Russia?
The chinese are smart - they would just make money and accumulate wealth.
The americans would just let you guys keep making noise until one day you wake up and starts to realize what is happening.
The russians would just sell their oil cheap to their chinese 'friend'.
Now, do you understand why chinese EVs are selling so well all around the world. And those OLD car companies seems to be 'left' out? The answer is CAPITAL or the lack of it.
So what about inflation? I think we will continue to pay higher prices. From my own experience, once price goes UP, it would NEVER go back DOWN.
Recently we hear a lot about de-$. The thing we hear and tend to belief is that countries started to trade in their own currency and not using the $. It sound very logical and simple. Why do we need the dollar. And so many would tend to belief that sooner or later, the $ would lose its primacy as a reserve currency and fall. Many would start to SELL $ and BUY Euro.
But is it as simple as that - countries outside US starts trading with each other in their OWN currency? Actually, what we should be asking is IF these countries can have CAPITAL for INVESTMENT without the $. Obviously the answer is NOT possible simply because nearly all the WEALTH in this world is still operating in $ - as in the EuroDollar system. If would be foolish to think that China can now be the new provider for CAPITAL for all those CAIPTAL starved countries wanting to have money to start production in their countries. That is why 'decoupling' and dedollarization must not be seen from a COMMODITY angle. It MUST be seen from a CAPITAL point of view.
And so now, without capital for investment, production would always lag behind population growth. This is the recipe for higher prices - INFLATION. I believe we are going to have higher prices for a long time to come.
What is Uncle Sam going to do then? I think he will just sit back for now and wait. He can wait for as long as needed until those people come back begging for CAPITAL again. As for now there is no other currency that is able to finance the world.
What is CHINA doing. Actually, they are quite happy with the current situation. Why? It is so simple. With the whole world starved of capital, they can't increase production and because of this, China can continue to sell to the whole world and continue to prosper - always accumulating wealth. With wealth, comes capital. At the moment, China is the country in the world that need not require $ capital as they have adequate for just their own use. The still can't export capital yet, notwithstanding all we hear about the BRI. China now only need A LOF OF raw commodity (Oil/iron/chemicals) to power its production and export business.
So now, do you think China is piss off with Uncle Sam and is really friendly with Russia?
The chinese are smart - they would just make money and accumulate wealth.
The americans would just let you guys keep making noise until one day you wake up and starts to realize what is happening.
The russians would just sell their oil cheap to their chinese 'friend'.
Now, do you understand why chinese EVs are selling so well all around the world. And those OLD car companies seems to be 'left' out? The answer is CAPITAL or the lack of it.
So what about inflation? I think we will continue to pay higher prices. From my own experience, once price goes UP, it would NEVER go back DOWN.
Comment:
This was just released by the BIS. Have a look and see the obvious.
www.bis.org/statisti...raphs/ch1graphC4.htm
www.bis.org/statisti...raphs/ch1graphC4.htm
Comment:
www.bloomberg.com/ne...e-gains-as-fed-peaks
So we all saw it and heard about it. But do we believe it?
It is true that the COTR or CFTC shows that speculators are Euro bullish. But why?
It is said because it is expected that the FED will begin cutting rates soon—almost 100 bps by year's end. And because of this, the dollar will fall. We have seen that the DXY DO NOT follow the EFFR.
I would say that this is wishful thinking. All we need to look at is the DXY in the 1W timeframe. DXY may fall to 94.65 in the above chart, which corresponds to 1.1495 in the EURUSD chart, which is also a strong resistance line. Even if the Fed cuts to zero, do you think the euro is that strong based on Fed rate cuts alone? Think again. DXY at 94.65 is very near the upward-sloping trend line from 2008. I just could not find a reason why the euro would be trading that high. Can you? I know I can be wrong but we better be prepared to see these speculator make another spectacular U-Turn. When in 01/2021, we all heard that the MSM was screaming that it would go all the way to 1.3000!!!
Still the best trading method is to REACT instead of PREDICT - for we know the key levels to watch.
Good luck.
So we all saw it and heard about it. But do we believe it?
It is true that the COTR or CFTC shows that speculators are Euro bullish. But why?
It is said because it is expected that the FED will begin cutting rates soon—almost 100 bps by year's end. And because of this, the dollar will fall. We have seen that the DXY DO NOT follow the EFFR.
I would say that this is wishful thinking. All we need to look at is the DXY in the 1W timeframe. DXY may fall to 94.65 in the above chart, which corresponds to 1.1495 in the EURUSD chart, which is also a strong resistance line. Even if the Fed cuts to zero, do you think the euro is that strong based on Fed rate cuts alone? Think again. DXY at 94.65 is very near the upward-sloping trend line from 2008. I just could not find a reason why the euro would be trading that high. Can you? I know I can be wrong but we better be prepared to see these speculator make another spectacular U-Turn. When in 01/2021, we all heard that the MSM was screaming that it would go all the way to 1.3000!!!
Still the best trading method is to REACT instead of PREDICT - for we know the key levels to watch.
Good luck.
Comment:
Now its all about the DEBT ceiling. $ would be on the defensive until it clears. This is a low risk but high impact issue. The chances of US defaulting is slim but in case it happens, then the result may be devastating. So I think between now and then, $ will stay low - the time is not right yet.
Comment:
Comment:
Buatlah seperti dulu. Korang tengok baik2. Tunggu sampai korang nampak satu lilin harga merah di 1D jangkamasa. Itulah isyarat dia yang mana kerbau dah lemah dan beruang dah datang. Jgn lupa letak SL di hujung atas tu.
Comment:
So this is how I would trade.
a) NZDJPY - 1D timeframe - wait for a doji or better still a red price candle, the candle should be short - sell the next day with SL just above the previous high.
b) USDJPY - wait for the 50%
c) EURUSD - wait till debt limit is settled.
What do you think?
a) NZDJPY - 1D timeframe - wait for a doji or better still a red price candle, the candle should be short - sell the next day with SL just above the previous high.
b) USDJPY - wait for the 50%
c) EURUSD - wait till debt limit is settled.
What do you think?
Comment:
NZDJPY - SELL @ D 84.98 - SL @ 85.50
Comment:
NZDJPD - move SL to Entry. TP @ 81.00. All 400 pips or nothing :)
Comment:
USDJPY - BUY @ 135.60. SL @ 135.48.
Comment:
Price just went slightly below the SL @ 135.48.
As you can see now, the BULL is in a fierce fight with the BEAR. Currently, BULL is having the advantage.
From the price action these 3 hours, what did we see? There are 3 possible actions one can take:
a) do nothing and close trade when price hit SL @ 135.48
b) lower SL to 135.38
c) lower SL to 135.38 and add BUY order
Answer is in the chart.
Currently, buyer and seller fighting over 135.40!!! Above this, bull is in charge. Below this, bear is in charge.
Let me know if you want the answer :)
As you can see now, the BULL is in a fierce fight with the BEAR. Currently, BULL is having the advantage.
From the price action these 3 hours, what did we see? There are 3 possible actions one can take:
a) do nothing and close trade when price hit SL @ 135.48
b) lower SL to 135.38
c) lower SL to 135.38 and add BUY order
Answer is in the chart.
Currently, buyer and seller fighting over 135.40!!! Above this, bull is in charge. Below this, bear is in charge.
Let me know if you want the answer :)
Comment:
USDJPY - yesterday was an epic fight at 135.40. Eventually, sellers managed to bring it down. But it was a good trade as the reward > risk. Now if you observe correctly, at this very moment, price is 'resting' in a very strategic position. It is at the 'C', and maybe looking at the 'D' @ 139.10 which is as you know, the POC. Now, I am looking for a reaction here to place a small BUY order with a tight SL.
Just a note about the trades. I did a SELL NZDJPY and a BUY USDJPY. As you noticed correctly, I am bound to catch one, and if I am very lucky, I catch both.
Just a note about the trades. I did a SELL NZDJPY and a BUY USDJPY. As you noticed correctly, I am bound to catch one, and if I am very lucky, I catch both.
Comment:
US03MY just went ballistic.
There is fear now of possible US debt default come 1 June.
There is now way to tell what might happen between now and then.
It is best to stick with 'safe haven' currency.
Let the NZDJPY run.
Let's NOT buy USDJPY for now.
There is fear now of possible US debt default come 1 June.
There is now way to tell what might happen between now and then.
It is best to stick with 'safe haven' currency.
Let the NZDJPY run.
Let's NOT buy USDJPY for now.
Comment:
Things were quite volatile yesterday. It is best to stop until things cool down. As we all know, trading in such an environment is risky simply because we can't set our SL tight.
USDJPY - now we can see price is reacting at the POC + 50%. @ 133.500. While waiting for the main course to arrive, I am trading small sums to keep my mind awake. Now waiting for price to come back to 133.78 and BUY with SL just below.
NZDJPY - I am still waiting. Many would be asking if we should take profit now instead of waiting until we reap the FULL 400pips. I think this is the kind of question many traders struggle with. For myself, I think waiting for FULL profit is the more profitable way in the LONG RUN.
Good luck.
USDJPY - now we can see price is reacting at the POC + 50%. @ 133.500. While waiting for the main course to arrive, I am trading small sums to keep my mind awake. Now waiting for price to come back to 133.78 and BUY with SL just below.
NZDJPY - I am still waiting. Many would be asking if we should take profit now instead of waiting until we reap the FULL 400pips. I think this is the kind of question many traders struggle with. For myself, I think waiting for FULL profit is the more profitable way in the LONG RUN.
Good luck.
Comment:
There is a difference between being rich and being wealthy. If we look at the DXY since the GFC in 2008, $ has been in an uptrend. Almost with certainty, this trend would continue, for the simple FACT that the preservation of wealth is the most important thing. And wealth's ONLY enemy is non other than INFLATION. Which means the FED would do its utmost to rein in inflation.
DXY at 94.65 would correspond to EURUSD at 1.1495, which is the strong resistance line from VP as well as ABCD. If DXY really drops below 95.65, then it would be testing the upward trend from 2008. I do not really think it will happen. Whatever the FED may do - money printing - cut rates - QE infinity - they would NOT do anything that might bring harm to wealth as denominated in USD.
And with each successive crisis, $ becomes stronger against other G7 currencies for the simple fact that the others ALWAYS get worse off than Uncle Sam - the cleanest ones among the pile of dirty laundry. And if you think the Euro would somehow take over - think again.
DXY at 94.65 would correspond to EURUSD at 1.1495, which is the strong resistance line from VP as well as ABCD. If DXY really drops below 95.65, then it would be testing the upward trend from 2008. I do not really think it will happen. Whatever the FED may do - money printing - cut rates - QE infinity - they would NOT do anything that might bring harm to wealth as denominated in USD.
And with each successive crisis, $ becomes stronger against other G7 currencies for the simple fact that the others ALWAYS get worse off than Uncle Sam - the cleanest ones among the pile of dirty laundry. And if you think the Euro would somehow take over - think again.
Comment:
Comment:
If we look at the DXY, it seems it got stuck at the reverse D above @ 101.30. I think what it is doing now is waiting for a direction. Of course, We know where it is likely to go and most likely it is waiting for the conclusion to the Debt Limit which is expected VERY SOON. Once that issue is settled, it will then move on to our target zone.
Comment:
Every currency pair is different. And this is something every trader MUST understand. Which means you CANNOT apply the same 'tool' across all FX pairs and expect them to react the same way.
For example, when trading USDJPY, we can now see that has a certain fondness for 50% pullback. Which is why I add it to my usual Volume profile, ABCD and Demand & Supply analysis. This will certainly make my trades more profitable.
Always remember our job - TO FIND OUT WHAT WORKS AND WHAT DON'T - all based on common sense. What we can SEE for ourselves.
What about NZDJPY????? It is true that our previous trade might not have made us any money for soon it will hit our SL @ Entry. How many of you can accept such a 'missed opportunity'????? I can ACCEPT this because I can see what price might do next - which offers me a BIGGER opportunity coming the way. All there is to do is WAIT and the bigger profit will come. So if 50% is to USDJPY, what is NZDJPY fond of? Well, actually you can see it CLEARLY. And if so, you know where price will go and wait there.
Good luck.
For example, when trading USDJPY, we can now see that has a certain fondness for 50% pullback. Which is why I add it to my usual Volume profile, ABCD and Demand & Supply analysis. This will certainly make my trades more profitable.
Always remember our job - TO FIND OUT WHAT WORKS AND WHAT DON'T - all based on common sense. What we can SEE for ourselves.
What about NZDJPY????? It is true that our previous trade might not have made us any money for soon it will hit our SL @ Entry. How many of you can accept such a 'missed opportunity'????? I can ACCEPT this because I can see what price might do next - which offers me a BIGGER opportunity coming the way. All there is to do is WAIT and the bigger profit will come. So if 50% is to USDJPY, what is NZDJPY fond of? Well, actually you can see it CLEARLY. And if so, you know where price will go and wait there.
Good luck.
Comment:
We all know why we are here - TO MAKE MONEY.
But if this is how we think and approach our trades, then most likely we will FAIL. Common sense will tell us that our greed will be our own undoing, for we will accept small gains but reluctant to stop when our trades are losing. I am sure ALL of us know about this. Those traders who can accept small profits are those who equally will not know when to let go. It is just basic human instinct. And this is ONE of the instincts we all have that we must NOT HAVE IN US WHEN TRADING.
The first step towards this is not to accept small profits. We must trust our analysis and let price go to our TP as each of us see fit. And yes, we may have more than one TP which depends on our analysis. JUST THAT DO NOT JUST TAKE PROIFIT JUST BY LOOKING AT PRICE ACTION. The kind of "oh shit i better take profit now or else I may end up with nothing" kind of situation.
To be a profitable trader, we must have the proper mindset. From now, lets do the OPPOSITE to what those 80%++ who loses money.
HOLD ON TO PROFITS
DISCARD LOSES ASAP
Which is what you see I have been doing with my trades.
But if this is how we think and approach our trades, then most likely we will FAIL. Common sense will tell us that our greed will be our own undoing, for we will accept small gains but reluctant to stop when our trades are losing. I am sure ALL of us know about this. Those traders who can accept small profits are those who equally will not know when to let go. It is just basic human instinct. And this is ONE of the instincts we all have that we must NOT HAVE IN US WHEN TRADING.
The first step towards this is not to accept small profits. We must trust our analysis and let price go to our TP as each of us see fit. And yes, we may have more than one TP which depends on our analysis. JUST THAT DO NOT JUST TAKE PROIFIT JUST BY LOOKING AT PRICE ACTION. The kind of "oh shit i better take profit now or else I may end up with nothing" kind of situation.
To be a profitable trader, we must have the proper mindset. From now, lets do the OPPOSITE to what those 80%++ who loses money.
HOLD ON TO PROFITS
DISCARD LOSES ASAP
Which is what you see I have been doing with my trades.
Comment:
Comment:
NZDJPY - Be prepared for 87.30
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
If it bounces off 1.0850 as shown above, it would have gathered enough energy to really go FAR ABOVE. This should be so as can be seen from the COTR. Do not miss this opportunity while we wait for the SELL later on when price reach the SELL TARGET ZONE.
Good luck.
Good luck.
Comment:
DXY has the potential to move up a bit more to 105.00
This corresponds to EURUSD to 1.0655
But as mentioned, let's not step in yet. Wait until this liquidity grab is over. EUR long was previously a crowded place. And this really invites the MARKET to come grab them. Once this is over, and when the BULLs gets a sobering treatment, that is when EURUSD will rise - always when you least expects it :)
This corresponds to EURUSD to 1.0655
But as mentioned, let's not step in yet. Wait until this liquidity grab is over. EUR long was previously a crowded place. And this really invites the MARKET to come grab them. Once this is over, and when the BULLs gets a sobering treatment, that is when EURUSD will rise - always when you least expects it :)
Comment:
I have a feeling the US$ is beginning its BULL RUN.
The reverse 'D' in the above chart is the pivot point.
And if you are in risk assets, you better be careful.
Good luck.
The reverse 'D' in the above chart is the pivot point.
And if you are in risk assets, you better be careful.
Good luck.
I am sure ALL of you have heard in the main stream media that with the coming recession, the FED will ease with rates dropping and QE hitting the roof. Hence $ would fall hard. If this is what you think, you should really think again. Do take a hard look at the DXY again in 1W timeframe!!!