Friday markets are met in a rather bad mood. The panic in the emerging markets does not subside, and the VIX fear index is at the maximum mark for the last month and it is growing further.
The reason is still the same - Trump's trading wars. And the latter does not even try to somehow extinguish the igniting flame of the global crisis, but rather throws fuel into the fire. The point is that in a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal he noted that the US will continue to struggle with the trade deficit, and this will affect all trading partners.
Markets took this as a signal that Trump's next attack target is going to be Japan. So, the reasons for calm on the horizon can be seen. Trump is clearly determined. And remembering his tweets of two weeks ago, another object of attacks may well be the US dollar. So, his purchases seem to us a very risky idea in the current conditions. But sales seem to be almost a win-win strategy. Even despite the potential positive for the dollar after the publication of today's data on the NFP.
As for the most promising pairs for dollar sales, it is the British pound and the Canadian dollar.
News from Brexit's negotiating fronts (Germany made concessions) show that the process is under way and the deal will most likely be concluded. And this means the growth of the GBPUSD pair by at least 1000 points.
Another interesting object, in our opinion, is the purchase of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar. It is a question of another negotiation process. This time between the US and Canada over NAFTA. Given that Mexico has already completed it and completed successfully, we estimate the chances of an agreement between the United States and Canada as high. But the current prices of the pair USCAD - this is essentially the price of the pair in the case of not signing a contract. That is a good opportunity for earning, as the fall of the dollar will occur with a vengeance.
Well, the Russian ruble continues to pour down. Britain officially declared Russia and personally Putin in the poisoning of the Violins. That is Armageddon in the form of November sanctions, to ban external financing, which is getting closer. Well, one more argument in favor of selling the ruble - the RF Ministry of Finance has finally lost confidence in the eyes of domestic investors. On Wednesday, he was unable to sell OFZs at an auction. And the situation on the government securities market is approaching the catastrophic: the yield of 10-year OFZs jumped to the level of 8.97% per annum for the first time since November 30, 2016.
Oil continues to pour, despite the decline in oil reserves in the United States. That suggests that sales in the oil market are systemic. The market has decided on the direction. So, selling oil is another good idea in our opinion.
The reason is still the same - Trump's trading wars. And the latter does not even try to somehow extinguish the igniting flame of the global crisis, but rather throws fuel into the fire. The point is that in a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal he noted that the US will continue to struggle with the trade deficit, and this will affect all trading partners.
Markets took this as a signal that Trump's next attack target is going to be Japan. So, the reasons for calm on the horizon can be seen. Trump is clearly determined. And remembering his tweets of two weeks ago, another object of attacks may well be the US dollar. So, his purchases seem to us a very risky idea in the current conditions. But sales seem to be almost a win-win strategy. Even despite the potential positive for the dollar after the publication of today's data on the NFP.
As for the most promising pairs for dollar sales, it is the British pound and the Canadian dollar.
News from Brexit's negotiating fronts (Germany made concessions) show that the process is under way and the deal will most likely be concluded. And this means the growth of the GBPUSD pair by at least 1000 points.
Another interesting object, in our opinion, is the purchase of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar. It is a question of another negotiation process. This time between the US and Canada over NAFTA. Given that Mexico has already completed it and completed successfully, we estimate the chances of an agreement between the United States and Canada as high. But the current prices of the pair USCAD - this is essentially the price of the pair in the case of not signing a contract. That is a good opportunity for earning, as the fall of the dollar will occur with a vengeance.
Well, the Russian ruble continues to pour down. Britain officially declared Russia and personally Putin in the poisoning of the Violins. That is Armageddon in the form of November sanctions, to ban external financing, which is getting closer. Well, one more argument in favor of selling the ruble - the RF Ministry of Finance has finally lost confidence in the eyes of domestic investors. On Wednesday, he was unable to sell OFZs at an auction. And the situation on the government securities market is approaching the catastrophic: the yield of 10-year OFZs jumped to the level of 8.97% per annum for the first time since November 30, 2016.
Oil continues to pour, despite the decline in oil reserves in the United States. That suggests that sales in the oil market are systemic. The market has decided on the direction. So, selling oil is another good idea in our opinion.
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