- setup, with supports at 98,00 / 97,15 / 95,20
- First warning Heikin Ashi candle since the break above 97,15. Today there is a chance for a small , or maybe a red candle. haDelta has been decreasin for last 5 days, which means the bull is slowly losing its extreme power.
Get ready for some increased in USD. Market will likely move sideaway in a bit more volatile range, or will produce a pull back to 97,15-98,00
There are early signals for a possible weakness in Price action:
- setup is slowly turning less , with Chikou Span hitting Price candles soon.
- Since the rally started from 95,00, this may be the first time that we see a candle close below Kijun Sen
- decreasing (DMI is still positive)
- Heikin Ashi candles are red ina row, more importantly haDelta is stuck below zero line
- Kumo is far below Price and relatively thick. 100 also far below Price
- The 4H is intact
My first impression is that a correction to 98,00 - 98,20 is possible. There we'll have to check price action again.
Suggestion: Time to take profit on USD Longs for now. Re-enter longs later in case we see buy signals at daily supports.
You can also enter small short, but use very wide stop (means you really need to do it in small, like 1/3 trade unit only, not to get hit by increasing ), but be careful, as you see there is no proper sell signal, just trend exhaustion signals, so a short has to be considered like a top hunting again.
p.s.: Naturally for EURUSD all the above is valid in inverse relation.
This was the strongest one way trend in the last 34 years. Needs to chill down a bit at some point.
The big trend will not change, but there is chance we see a lot more volatile USD in coming months. This was such an obvious long lasting consensus trade, that I assume the whole world is masively loaded USD longs by now. Once we can see a trigger what causes a quick and massive profit taking. Later of course real long term trend followers will re-buy USD again.
Anyway, I don't think the next 3-5 months will be as obvious as the last 10 months were.