I think the market slowly realizes that something is wrong with the dollar.
One more week and we are entering into the last quarter of this year. At the beginning of this year the FED was talking about 4 rate hikes this year. We have 2 more FOMC so if they start to get very busy with the hiking we will get 2 in this year. But let's be honest they will not hike at the US elections....
Just as I posted in the summer their last chance to hike before the elections was at the July FOMC meeting.
They've run out of time. So we have a strong dollar , a confused FED, a US election , a lot of US companies against the strong dollar in the USA and a currency war where every participant wants his currency the weakest to support the export. We cannot have everything from the above at the same time. Even the FED cannot have it.
So the first they give up is the strong buck. Actually they've given up already months ago just FEEDing the market with the upcoming rate hike. I think this is the point when the market will not believe it anymore.
The dollar index near to 100 and nothing happened this year. It will be heading to trendline and will break it down this time.
We've run to a 2-month-high today but it printed a key reversal with a daily minimum close. Priced tagged the 200 SMA again and turned down from there.
RSI shows a bearish divergence on the daily chart.
Normally after a reversal like this Japan starts to intervene but tomorrow (22nd Sept) is a national holiday in Japan. So the ECB will be alone with intervention... I doubt they will be able to hold the price above the trendline .... SO get ready we are breaking down and targeting the bottom of the range at 93$ in a few days.
One more week and we are entering into the last quarter of this year. At the beginning of this year the FED was talking about 4 rate hikes this year. We have 2 more FOMC so if they start to get very busy with the hiking we will get 2 in this year. But let's be honest they will not hike at the US elections....
Just as I posted in the summer their last chance to hike before the elections was at the July FOMC meeting.
They've run out of time. So we have a strong dollar , a confused FED, a US election , a lot of US companies against the strong dollar in the USA and a currency war where every participant wants his currency the weakest to support the export. We cannot have everything from the above at the same time. Even the FED cannot have it.
So the first they give up is the strong buck. Actually they've given up already months ago just FEEDing the market with the upcoming rate hike. I think this is the point when the market will not believe it anymore.
The dollar index near to 100 and nothing happened this year. It will be heading to trendline and will break it down this time.
We've run to a 2-month-high today but it printed a key reversal with a daily minimum close. Priced tagged the 200 SMA again and turned down from there.
RSI shows a bearish divergence on the daily chart.
Normally after a reversal like this Japan starts to intervene but tomorrow (22nd Sept) is a national holiday in Japan. So the ECB will be alone with intervention... I doubt they will be able to hold the price above the trendline .... SO get ready we are breaking down and targeting the bottom of the range at 93$ in a few days.
Comment:
ECB seems to be missing the intervention today. Or they are just not enough without Japan...
Comment:
Getting closer and closer to the trendline...
Comment:
Pop from the trendline. And I think the FED has just thrown some freshly printed dollar to the market. Is there anything nicer than selling paper?