chartwatchers

US DOLLAR INDEX - RATE HIKE

TVC:DXY   US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX
1007 9 32
6 months ago
The US Dollar             started to price in the 27th July rate hike. We are heading to the top of the range.
Next week we are going to break 96.70 and the next resistance zone is 98.50.
Here comes the big question: will we be able to break 98.50?
Maybe yes, maybe not. In the last few weeks the dollar was quite weak. After coming back from the bear trap below the range (2016. May) it came back again to the bottom of the range at beginning of June (A) and again in the middle of June (B). It shows weakness to me. FED is printing like crazy before the elections. Brexit saved the dollar from the decline. I'm afraid that even if we break 98.50 we will not be able to tag the top of the range.

So during the next week -week and a half the dollar will be topping and heading into a decline below the range.

I set this post as neutral because I think we are going to rally for a week or week and a half, and after that this is a "short vehicle".
6 months ago
Comment: So far so good...
snapshot
CyBriz
6 months ago
why you sound so certain about the hike?
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chartwatchers PRO CyBriz
6 months ago
Because at the next recession in 2021-24 they will need to cut to survive.
If interest rate is near to zero they are gone.
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CyBriz chartwatchers
6 months ago
maybe they will raise the rate in sept or dec but not in july? What do you think.
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andrej123456
6 months ago
Ok, so US shares could go a little bit bearish in next 2 weeks ? Or just are going to rally before/after the hike (if there will be any) ?
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epalazzo
6 months ago
Do you think the USD will not be able to gain enough from possible (presumed) and real rate hikes in the future in order to fly to new heights ever?
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Victor.Y.F
6 months ago
Thank chartwatchers! Same view with you and also the range thing.
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andrej123456
6 months ago
worth buying as futures now ? are you long or this is just an informative chart ? Thank you !
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lbg01 PRO
6 months ago
sort of in tandem with Gold's short term down move?
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ja.piotr.bor
6 months ago
Hi. What do you think about emerging market currencies ? You are from Hungary, so HUF, forint aren't so weak, but PLN zloty is very week and it's really going under the hood, performing like underdog, which is a bit unfair (economic, gdp, retail sales, production output all up?) I know about deficit, but still - it was a huge underdog in currency market. I know about populit gov. it's running investors away, even more with problems of the world. What do you think now can go ?
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