chartwatchers
Short

US Dollar Index - The Collapse

TVC:DXY   US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX
1349 25 46
The dollar was not able to break above 98.47 at the daily cycle high(DCH) . It's a very bad news for the dollar longs because now I'm 100% sure that we will break marginally down from the range in the next 2 weeks (blue).

The dollar is ready to print a DCL in the following 2 weeks. The DCL will come down minimum to the bottom of the range and most probably will break it down marginally.
After the DCL a new daily cycle will be started but it's going to be a weak bounce with a daily cycle high around 95 and it will end in a panic selling far below the range around 85$.

-Andrew- PRO
3 months ago
Agree with you there
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toothless
3 months ago
Rocket fuel for the gold spacecraft!
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huanle
3 months ago
Oil will rise then?
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Batman-oz
3 months ago
Thank you
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albium
3 months ago
so this means rocket ship long gold right?
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chartwatchers PRO albium
3 months ago
Yep.
+1 Reply
Nightstar
3 months ago
Another incredibly glaring clue would be that the US Dollar has not been able to regain the 200DMA --- that in itself spells trouble! This is what happens when Governments print trillions of dollars in paper currency folks.. Eventually those chickens are gonna come home to roost :)

Don't even think about shorting Gold over the next several years boys and girls! You don't have the stomach for it.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO Nightstar
3 months ago
Very true. We might be heating with dollars in 2020-2022.
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newatthis PRO
3 months ago
I am Canadian and most of my currency in in CAD but have some in USD...should I convert it to CAD then? Thanks.
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chartwatchers PRO newatthis
3 months ago
I would not keep any dollar right now.
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alan_watch
3 months ago
hmm.... usually I agree with your ideas but... I think there is one more long move to 98 99 left even if it goes down... ofc if fed keeps halting rates... short will be inevitable...
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Staxs
3 months ago
Once 92 is broken it looks a long way down from there. I am not convinced rates will be raised now, perhaps one more time before elections. With Oil glut stil about and it very slowly getting drained the dollar fall should support Oil prices along with gold.

Once Oil balance is supported plus weaker dollar, boom, but by then dollar strength will need to be re-examined. Also by then either one of the dodgy US air-cut brigade will be in power.
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ja.piotr.bor
3 months ago
So $$ getting killed? Or at least go to normal level?
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Staxs ja.piotr.bor
3 months ago
Depends on what your definition of normal is?!
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ja.piotr.bor Staxs
3 months ago
8X index dx dollar. Below 3,6PLN/USD.
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Victor.Y.F
3 months ago
Thank you chart watchers! DXY was rejected from 55 weeks SMA also was rejected from 200 days SMA. It has never closed above those key levels. Nice call for the metal.
+1 Reply
showerreport
3 months ago
If DXY collapses, then you should bet on gold (as you are) but also on oil ?
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chartwatchers PRO showerreport
3 months ago
You should be in gold already or open today the latest.
OIl will follow stocks from now. A weak dollar could help oil in its rally but first it needs to bottom.
Oil many times not following the dollar....
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showerreport chartwatchers
3 months ago
Thank you very much! I think that oil could go south depeding on wether the FED winks the eye on a September hike on August 26th. On the other hand FED's policy has used BOE as a bellweather, in this case BOE went backwards on hiking and maybe the FED will remain in .25-.50 has its bellweather is advicing or hike (number are telling don't do it and trash the dollar) as they will handle the moral hazard of not hiking they´ve said 4 hikes.

What are you think about the VIX should we go to 15?
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Nightstar showerreport
3 months ago
OIL is a 'buy' at these levels but would wait for it to tag the 10DMA at the very least. Also.. OIL could churn while stocks look to correct momentarily.
+1 Reply
showerreport Nightstar
3 months ago
Thanks very much for your opinion! so VIX is going north?
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chartwatchers PRO showerreport
3 months ago
Yes. But don't wait that to go above 20...
That was an ICL in June. So It will pop to 14-15 maximum.
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bobrenard96
3 months ago
Your analyse is very interesting.
Regarding gold, and even if it is difficult to forecast it, what level do you think that it can go before the end of the year ? 1400 ? 1500 ? 10000 ? (for 10000... ok... sorry... i pushes it a bit far !... i concede it to you)
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chartwatchers PRO bobrenard96
3 months ago
We will see 1500 this year maybe 1600.
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bobrenard96 chartwatchers
3 months ago
Thanks very much for your opinion!
Great !
Reply
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