I could say "why not?". Just for fun. But first of all we are not here for the fun and for excitement, but for to make profit, and secondly, even in a non trending instrument we have to have some arguments when we chose a direction to trade. Certanly USD has been "dead end" for some time, I do not know anyone who really understands what is going on with it. Defenately DXY is like the inverse of EURUSD, since EUR is the major component of this ccy basket.
It is not going anywhere really, volatility has bean decreasing, especially in case of EURUSD if you check daily ATR it has reached extremely low level by now. Why is EUR so well bid? Why investors keep on selling back USD from time to time despite the rather bullish macro news, especially when really everybody has been expecting USD gain for more than 6 months now? And maybe this is the reason, the key point to understand why USD is stuck. Expectations has gone too far too early. People got burnt a lot of times by now on trying to catch each and every likely turnarounds and breakouts. (So did I btw).
I think in longer term positioning has to become even more neutral on USD before bullish expectations accelerate again. Plus we'll need some trigger, but to be honest reasons for the moves (triggers) are the easiest to find any time, whenever the move has started. This combo will have to take place and then the sceptics will join the party later, driving USD higher and higher, and hopefully the party will go on with a decisive trend reversal later this year.
But let's get back to prompt situation. Not much use of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, or of any other trendfollowing system. These work only when a trend is in place, but not in rangebound mkts. So check the rest:
How is the ADX? Low. Is the instrument trending? Not really. Is it ard the bottom of the range? Yes it is. So what to use then? Oscillator - Slow Stoch for example, which is in "oversold" territory on both time frames.
Given this very simple checklist, probably it is better risk reward to accumulate some USD here again, as we can place a very tight, reasonable stop under the position.
I will slowly accumulate some USD Indx Longs in smaller clips within 79,35 - 79,55 range, with a stop below 79,30.
Meanwhile we have to watch closely if we see any short term reversal signal on Heiken Ashi candles, which could give us further confidence to add to positions maybe. Anyhow, until further buy signals this is rather a bottom fishing, so do not size it up too early!
It is not going anywhere really, volatility has bean decreasing, especially in case of EURUSD if you check daily ATR it has reached extremely low level by now. Why is EUR so well bid? Why investors keep on selling back USD from time to time despite the rather bullish macro news, especially when really everybody has been expecting USD gain for more than 6 months now? And maybe this is the reason, the key point to understand why USD is stuck. Expectations has gone too far too early. People got burnt a lot of times by now on trying to catch each and every likely turnarounds and breakouts. (So did I btw).
I think in longer term positioning has to become even more neutral on USD before bullish expectations accelerate again. Plus we'll need some trigger, but to be honest reasons for the moves (triggers) are the easiest to find any time, whenever the move has started. This combo will have to take place and then the sceptics will join the party later, driving USD higher and higher, and hopefully the party will go on with a decisive trend reversal later this year.
But let's get back to prompt situation. Not much use of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, or of any other trendfollowing system. These work only when a trend is in place, but not in rangebound mkts. So check the rest:
How is the ADX? Low. Is the instrument trending? Not really. Is it ard the bottom of the range? Yes it is. So what to use then? Oscillator - Slow Stoch for example, which is in "oversold" territory on both time frames.
Given this very simple checklist, probably it is better risk reward to accumulate some USD here again, as we can place a very tight, reasonable stop under the position.
I will slowly accumulate some USD Indx Longs in smaller clips within 79,35 - 79,55 range, with a stop below 79,30.
Meanwhile we have to watch closely if we see any short term reversal signal on Heiken Ashi candles, which could give us further confidence to add to positions maybe. Anyhow, until further buy signals this is rather a bottom fishing, so do not size it up too early!