The dollar is still considered a safe haven currency and is being pushed up by the war in Europe and a carry trade that the bank of japan has graciously decided to create for traders as they borrow in a falling yen then buy higher yield. The bank will defend 0.25% interest rate on 10 year government bonds so people keep borrowing and they keep printing. 400% debt to GDP creates a rather large problem when interest on the debt going up a couple percentage is more than the tax revenue you could bring in at a 100% tax on the citizens. They can't let it rise, so they will print. The war in Ukraine is killing the Euro. Most currencies are getting crushed by the dollar. We may fall out of the terminal wedge, but I wonder, without some relief for Japan on interest rates, meaning the US would have to relent on hikes, or Putin relents on Europe, how long till it's right back up testing this level again. Where's the relief? May 4th seems like an bad time for the Fed to buckle on interest rates if they ever, you know, want to have any credibility again and Putin gonna Putin. Food for thought until something changes. 103.277 on the Dollar seems to be the level to break right now, but you want that move to push down and not come right back up and over it in a swoop move.
Comment:
Terminal uptrend broken, but it's consolidating just below the top. I wonder how much movement we really get prior to the Fed meeting Wednesday?