DXY US DOLLAR 4HR Projection

TVC:DXY   U.S. Dollar Currency Index
The move up in the us dollar index from 94.14 to 103.89 took the shape of a ABC structure per normal. The ABC ended at 103.89 which was a perfect 1.618 fibonacci extension .

DXY is now retracing the move up in a typical choppy fashion as dollar bulls try and catch the bottom of the retrace and push price up and dollar bears sell into the push. This creates a whipsaw price action and a difficult trade imo .

Price action at 100 is intense. obviously bulls are buying the 38.2 retrace as shown on the chart in red and a case can be made that the retrace is finished.

there is an open gap at 100.74 (arrow) which was suspiciously left open when price bounced but did not close the gap when it could have easily. the gap at 100.74 is a marker to watch. the gap is at A=C of the large ABC up and is now strong resistance.

so here is my hedged prediction ... dont all traders hedge? ha

short term we bounce off the 382 and fill the gap at 100.74 .... resistance holds price at that level which frustrates the bulls and price drops from there to target at 99.00 which is where GAP#2(arrow) is filled. 99.00 is close to a 50% retrace of the large ABC up and a favorite fib for retraces. 99.00 is where the retrace ends and we go back to test the highs at 104.

that is my story and i am sticking to it !

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