Kumowizard
Short

USD - some damage now, tragedy later?

TVC:DXY   US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX
122 4 6
Weekly:
- Key level to watch is 96 !
- Heikin-Ashi reversed to bearish . We have quite a damage in USD Indx             , but no drama yet. Real panic and USD sellof would start below 96.
- EWO and MACD are still holding in bullish territory

Daily:
- Massive USD selloff on Trump victory, but initial super bearish price action started to fade a bit. However the damage is clearly done here. Ichimoku setup turns neutral from bullish .
- Heikin-Ashi candle is kind of extreme with these super long wicks... yet it is bearish! haDelta and DM_Oscillator are down.
- Volatility will stay high. Be careful with position sizing!
- EWO is down to flat

We should not have illusions, Trump will fck up US budget. The next big trade for 2017 will be SELL USD ( DXY             ) and SELL longer dated US Treasury Bonds!

Wait a bit until the dust settles, then think about how to build short USD positions!

JavierFX15
2 months ago
We will see
Reply
GregGibbons PRO
2 months ago
What are your thoughts going into next week? Thank you for your posts!
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Kumowizard PRO GregGibbons
2 months ago
@GregGibbons, Short term I expect some pull back lower. Mid term the 5y and 10y bond spread widening determins the faith of USD... however if later in December also ECB starts signal tapering again, then EURUSD will spike and DXY drop.
The long term is more important. I think as FED hikes, ECB will also normalise rates soon. + Trump's policy will be all based on USD devaluation. In 2 years horizont I think DXY will come to or sub 80!
Reply
GregGibbons PRO Kumowizard
2 months ago
@Kumowizard, Thank you for taking the time to respond, the last few days have been nerve racking for me holding Gold miners, your charts gave me some confirmation that the dollar would be dropping soon. I hope you will post your charts for Gold. Your professionalism and the sharing of your knowledge/experience is much appreciated following this nasty election!
+1 Reply
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