DXY: Minor 3

Incoming.

Market is nasty beast, will fake out the strongest of will. Will we break our necks watching DXY shooting up to 107.80s? Just to return to this level? Undoubtedly.

However, DXY will not Break 100 for 4 more years, so there is a forecast.

Comment:

Reversal for continuation higher, here at 104.82 or a little lower at 104.67 seems likely, for another push up into the 105s to complete this Minor Leg.

Comment:

Got a turnaround 12 pips over invalidation of the impulse at 104.524. Looking to hit that pink minute target at about 105.685 before getting a Minor 4 retrace.

Comment:

Ok, so either we are getting Minor 4, or this is something else, based on my impulsive count at 104.512. However, ES is dumping like this will reverse. Hope everyone is safe. I am still short ES and NQ, and even if Minor 4, we should be completing, soon. Will update EOD or in the morning. Best, Cuz

Comment:

One more thing, if this is a minor 4, its overlaping, which is okay in a correction, but does not bode well for as much continuation as I have forecast, SO, and since I am not fully satisfied with my count up the impulse, I am going to rework, and see, whether this could be off a degree and actually be just the ((i)) of 3. That Minor correction played out almost identical to plan, BUT early and a little small, in time and depth, to where it could be a Minute ((ii)). Standby.

Comment:

Won't go into long winded explaination, but looking back to 2022, the Intermediate 5 of the runnup coindiding just prior to Equity lows, has a nice, extended Minor Impulse, with a large wave 1, much like this is developing. That move ran 8 points, about 101-109. all we need is 7...102ish to 109ish. I think we get it and the next big move will be our Minute ((iii)) of Minor 3 of Intermediate (C).
Best,
Cuz

Comment:

I am now leaning toward one more down wave to 103.70-80. This is primarily based on the price action in ES/NQ, which looks corrective and productive for one more big C wave, up, before we sell off. I expect this to take place, tomorrow.

Comment:

Jumped out of equity hedges. All I can say is that this is unclear, BUT still expecting reconciliation higher, primarily. Upside looks better, in DXY, and downside in Equities. We shall see

Comment:

Moving as expected. Looking for a move into 105.80s, and close around 105.70

Comment:

I am not a buyer, here, for technical that 104.665=104.665 and I am unclear on the pattern. In other words, it is no longer behaving within my parameters, so I am not a buyer, TODAY.

Comment:

Headed to low 105s to reassess

Comment:

Low mid 105s lol. Seems we have stabilized, in a Minute ((b)), looking for higher until ES makes a new low.

Comment:

I see this as totally unclear but I am leaning toward some fairly unorthodox thinking on how to express the price action observed over past 3 weeks. Will update with another post.
I grade this post a B+ bc we got into the upper 105.s which would have been actionable if trading this move in the time frame expected. Even though, the intermediate (C) is likely complete, so it took an additional minor 4-5 to get there.

Comment:

Heck, I guess this is still totally valid, so I will update. I think this is a Cycle II, at this point. Once I really dug into MACD, I was able to pull back some of the magnitude and see that we have completed Supercycle (as I count it) (IV)) and have apparently now begun our final ascent.

I also believe there is credibility to the count here depicted, but with all of the elements of impulsivity, and at times, outright impulsivity in this move, I have to think that what we have been building to for many decades is here. Essentially, I am looking for what I will count as a Primary C, which could subdivide for sometime, down to 103-104-105 regions and then look for Cycle III to begin.