5/22/24 - $elf - setting up for taylor swift-kick-in-the-nuts?
5/22/24 - vrockstar -
ELF
- let's get real. the elf customer is probably sippin
SBUX
, buying at
TGT
and doing this all while wearing $lulu. while elf is a good discount brand, and that in theory *helps*... makeup is something that these customers already own a lot of... and if their replacement cycle starts to slow, or retailers are ordering in less inventory (*ahem* tgt)... this is MAD expensive at 50x next year EPS and even 30x on '27 PE. I'd love to eventually dip buy this but fear this is going to get the #taylor-swift-kick-in-the-pants treatment. i'm surprised the market is not more willing to sell these sorts of things first but the balance of risk looks more -ve here than +ve. i am not sure i'll short bc that's a miserable existance, but i'm tempted here if the chain looks to offer reasonable R/R. will keep you guys posted.
ELF
- let's get real. the elf customer is probably sippin
SBUX
, buying at
TGT
and doing this all while wearing $lulu. while elf is a good discount brand, and that in theory *helps*... makeup is something that these customers already own a lot of... and if their replacement cycle starts to slow, or retailers are ordering in less inventory (*ahem* tgt)... this is MAD expensive at 50x next year EPS and even 30x on '27 PE. I'd love to eventually dip buy this but fear this is going to get the #taylor-swift-kick-in-the-pants treatment. i'm surprised the market is not more willing to sell these sorts of things first but the balance of risk looks more -ve here than +ve. i am not sure i'll short bc that's a miserable existance, but i'm tempted here if the chain looks to offer reasonable R/R. will keep you guys posted.
Comment:
After seeing the stock -10% AH... reverse and go +15% green, I'm tactically short here as funding for a few of my longs. I've seen these types run a few days, so i'm not large, and the result was defn not "bad", but at this valuation and speech about the consumer/ outlook... it's also not a +15% move worthy. safe out there fam.