SP500. Possible downside under BS+AS from the current levels

There is possible decline under BS+AS. BS - down in (c) of ((ii)), ALT - down in (iii) of ((c)) of 4.
The shape of current decline is not clear at 15min time frame. Nevertheless, I see possibility for downside from the current levels.

Comment:

The count has been adjusted little bit, according to the last developments of price. But in general the Basic scenario and ALT stay the same. There should be 3 waved corrective rise before any confidence in the turn to the downside

Comment:

This rise still has a corrective shape. I consider that there is some wxy combination.
The shape is very questionable. There will be an answer early coming week. if there is no new top above possible (i) + impulsive decline + RSX down = first confirmation of the turn to the downside

Comment:

There is a big change. That extreme triangle that I tried to fill in is not an option anymore. I think there can be a final diagonal in this wave 5 of (5). That’s why I have changed the ((d)) and ((e)) of 4 to the (a) and (b) of the ((i)) of the diagonal in 5.
The basic scenario is that SP500 is in the wave ((v)) of 5 of (5) of ((5)). But There must be a confirmation before as a proof of the turn. Until that the higher levels are still possible, nevertheless if the diagonal in 5 is true to the Market than this potential for the upside is very limited. The sentiment is very extreme , there are almost no “bears” left.

Comment:

There is a possible impulse down in SP500. Now it is time to see the shape of the recovery, in case of the corrective pattern it will be a setup for short

Comment:

There is possible end of the first impulse to the downside. The alt - that we saw another ZZ downside in the wave (iv) of ((v)) diagonal. Until the clear corrective setback in three waves the highe levels are still possible.

Comment:

There is possible wave ((ii)) in place. It is shallow retracement, it would be more comfortable for the corrective rise to get at least 50% from the wave ((i)) but nevertheless there are three waves up. The possible shape of this wave ((ii)) is Zigzag. I do not exclude some development to higher levels in current rise. As usually Alt - to the new top from here in wave ((v)) of a diagonal.

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The new moves bring the new possibilities. The Basic count is still valid BUT the move from the downside can be labeled as impulse so the Alt count has more odds now. ALT -it is possible wave ((v)) to the new high now.

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The retracement is very deep but in three waves still. According to Basic count - it is a set up, only RSX1H down is missing. It is better to wait for it. ALT - we are in the wave ((v)) to the new high.

Comment:

Alt scenario with wave ((iv)) played out. That's why the basic scenario is wave ((v)) be close to the end. ALT - it is now the wave (c) of ((v)) is in the beginning.
If any of BS or AS is true to the market then there is a big downside potential from current levels.

Comment:

There is a substantial decline on 15min. Basic - There are possible waves i-ii-iii in place, to make the impulse down there need to be iv up and v down. The shape of the possible iv is not clear for now.
Alternative - there are three waves down and the correction is finished with more upside from here.