Notes.
1. I think it's important to recognize this price action as a POSSIBLE back test and rejection for that pennant. Volume consistently declined whilst ES rallied harder than we've seen since January.
2. Fibs tracking well here. Price action seems to be ping ponging between .5 and .78 extensions.
3. We've made a slightly higher high and recently RSI has put in a slightly lower low. (figures)
4. We are on a 4.5-month uptrend and haven't returned to oversold region since Oct. (In a down market)
Fundamentals- PCE CPI were hot garbage. Savings rates up, mortgage apps below 2008 lvls, basically the rate hikes are doing what they were made to do. We knew that was going to happen I mean have you seen the price of eggs.
Overall, the fundamentals do not look good for equities in general. Although this represents much more than just the SP500, when something breaks everything breaks. If you pay enough attention, you'll see relatively inexperienced fund managers taking the reins in a lesser than familiar fiscal climate vs easy money time. Housing. I could go on and on about how badly the current housing market is going to affect the economy and more importantly the average person, maybe another post for another chart.
Tomorow- I expect not much action, I'm seeing calls for continuation, but with the volatility in store for the rest of the week, I think we'll see some selling Monday. Expect 4000 to act like a magnet.
This Week- Well I guess it depends on what our boy Jerome says to congress, and the jobs data. More importantly, how the markets spin these events into market movers. Up or down. This week in particular I believe we'll see some crazy volatility both ways. I would be looking for short entries at extreme levels, cough cough 415. Then a gloomy doomy Fridumpday.
Next 3 months- All I have to really go off of other than the monthly bear flag we are forming is our levels. If ES can push past 415 and mount, 432 is basically otw. Slim chance, I think. I also think if we were to move back down, bulls will step back in around that 365 lvl for bigger positioning.
Next 12 months- In this regard I am more talking about the market in general. I am basically waiting for rates to start turning, and a bigger leg down in equities as a whole. Personally, I believe if this happens, we as traders can take advantage of decade type longs on strong companies. Even better if they so happen to pay out a dividend.
Synapsis- neutral pending further data... aren't we all
1. I think it's important to recognize this price action as a POSSIBLE back test and rejection for that pennant. Volume consistently declined whilst ES rallied harder than we've seen since January.
2. Fibs tracking well here. Price action seems to be ping ponging between .5 and .78 extensions.
3. We've made a slightly higher high and recently RSI has put in a slightly lower low. (figures)
4. We are on a 4.5-month uptrend and haven't returned to oversold region since Oct. (In a down market)
Fundamentals- PCE CPI were hot garbage. Savings rates up, mortgage apps below 2008 lvls, basically the rate hikes are doing what they were made to do. We knew that was going to happen I mean have you seen the price of eggs.
Overall, the fundamentals do not look good for equities in general. Although this represents much more than just the SP500, when something breaks everything breaks. If you pay enough attention, you'll see relatively inexperienced fund managers taking the reins in a lesser than familiar fiscal climate vs easy money time. Housing. I could go on and on about how badly the current housing market is going to affect the economy and more importantly the average person, maybe another post for another chart.
Tomorow- I expect not much action, I'm seeing calls for continuation, but with the volatility in store for the rest of the week, I think we'll see some selling Monday. Expect 4000 to act like a magnet.
This Week- Well I guess it depends on what our boy Jerome says to congress, and the jobs data. More importantly, how the markets spin these events into market movers. Up or down. This week in particular I believe we'll see some crazy volatility both ways. I would be looking for short entries at extreme levels, cough cough 415. Then a gloomy doomy Fridumpday.
Next 3 months- All I have to really go off of other than the monthly bear flag we are forming is our levels. If ES can push past 415 and mount, 432 is basically otw. Slim chance, I think. I also think if we were to move back down, bulls will step back in around that 365 lvl for bigger positioning.
Next 12 months- In this regard I am more talking about the market in general. I am basically waiting for rates to start turning, and a bigger leg down in equities as a whole. Personally, I believe if this happens, we as traders can take advantage of decade type longs on strong companies. Even better if they so happen to pay out a dividend.
Synapsis- neutral pending further data... aren't we all