ES: Hmmm.....

The PA Monday and today has me thinking "Hmmmm....".
And that basically sums up my analysis.

LOL!

Alright I am going to try to offer some insight here.
So SPX/ES/SPY has started the month as expected, an aggressive bounce which if you read my SPY and or ES idea you would likely also be expecting.
We are only 2trading days into October and we ALREADY surpassed my immediate bullish target on SPY which was 365 and are in the mid range of the time series model I listed for SPY (the 370s) and have surpassed the weekly trading range on both SPY and ES.

I will be honest, I was expecting a bounce but I wasn't expecting this type of aggressiveness to the bounce. So let's take a look at where we currently are:


So, we are right at the top of ES's regression channel and we have also surpassed the weekly range, both visible in the above chart.

We are approaching the first monthly predicted high, which you can see below:


So you see both the monthly highs and the monthly lows are outside of the current regression channel reach. Can ES break out and hit the monthly highs? Absolutely, it has done this last month.



Will it do it this month?
Its hard to say. If you read my SPY idea you will know that a probability assessment supports SPY hitting its first monthly target (chart below):


As of close we are almost 3% away.

Futures is currently just over 1% away:


So what's going to happen?

Well, pullback for sure because this is over-extended. Will we continue up? Hard to say, but you know the math always has answers. Sometimes we just don't like the response or the waiting necessary.

So if you look in the main chart, you will see I have posted the math targets for tonight/tomorrow.
If this is pullback, I would expect it to at least extend to 3762.

Now, there are reasons I think this may just be pull back. For one, there is still optimism present in the market. We can see that by the reluctance ES has in selling off and the amount of buyers that keep stepping in with each sell off.

The other, well of course the probability assessment on SPY. But probability is just chance and chance is not certainty, so keep this in mind as well.

But also, like I said, the math has answers. And so we can tell, with some accuracy, whether ES is pulling back or not.

How?

Well if you look at the three targets. If ES breaks down BELOW and CLOSES below 3720, the chances that the selling will continue into the next coming days GREATLY augments. In the past, whenever I see ES break below this third bearish target and holds, its always an instinctive immediate scale into SPXS for me because it signals coming selling for some days.

So, keep that in mind.

If we maintain above this level, then chances are its probably pullback.

THAT SAID!

This isn't a horrible place to scale in short if you are swinging. I have not yet, but only because I am greedy and want to see how far they are going to take this. I want that perfect entry, you know?
But I will likely bite the bullet tomorrow and begin scaling in short.

Anyway, that is my assessment/opinion/analysis.

Let me know your thoughts below!