#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 02.25 - 03.01
Lets break down some structure and see if we can get clues and areas of interest for this week.
Last Week :
Last week we opened with a hold and consolidation under VAH of Previous HTF Range which built up enough Supply to give a sell to lower targets at the Mean and VAL, FED Minutes day we consolidated at at VAL with an attempt to break under which failed and inventory corrected back towards the Mean with and an after hours pump info VAH. Globex got continuation creating a big gap to the upside and an RTH push through the upper Edge into a new HTF Range. Friday to end the week we got a push into new VAL but failed to get inside Value and instead found selling that took us back under 5112.50 - 07.50 Key Resistance.
This Week:
This week we will have to see how the market will trade in this new Range. Right now we got a rejection from VAL and the push into this Edge was done during lower Globex Volume. Will enough buying come in at this area to give us a hold above/inside this Edge and we try to make another push towards VAL/ and new Value or will this push start running out of juice and we start coming back in filling the push with Supply.
For now our range is 5012.50 - 5060.75, Current Intrarange Support 5095.50 - 92.50 Current Key Resistance 5112.50 - 07.50. For us to attempt anything higher into above VAL we would need to take out 5112.50 - 07.50 as we now have Supply above it which could keep us under. If we build up enough Supply or selling comes in to break 5095.50 - 92.50 we could see a move towards 5081 - 77.75, Key Support for this range would be 5065.75 - 60.75 this is bottom of the Edge we need to hold around for this break out to stay valid with hopes for higher continuation. If we can't hold this area then we can start coming back in targeting previous VAH/Value as it would be a failure in new range which could ultimately target lower Edge of Previous Range again.
If selling is not strong then we could just balance in this new Edge/VAL/Mean area until enough supply builds up to come in or more buyers come in to keep going towards above VAH, this could take some time to resolve or if volume comes in then could see next move quicker.
Best thing is to take it range to range level to level.
Levels to watch :
Current Key Resistance : 5112.50 - 5107.50
Targets above 5129 - 25 // 5144 - 40.25
Current Intrarange Support : 5095.50 - 92.50
Targets under 5086.25 - 81 - 77.75 // Key Support for any continuation lower 5066.50 - 60.67
Last Week :
Last week we opened with a hold and consolidation under VAH of Previous HTF Range which built up enough Supply to give a sell to lower targets at the Mean and VAL, FED Minutes day we consolidated at at VAL with an attempt to break under which failed and inventory corrected back towards the Mean with and an after hours pump info VAH. Globex got continuation creating a big gap to the upside and an RTH push through the upper Edge into a new HTF Range. Friday to end the week we got a push into new VAL but failed to get inside Value and instead found selling that took us back under 5112.50 - 07.50 Key Resistance.
This Week:
This week we will have to see how the market will trade in this new Range. Right now we got a rejection from VAL and the push into this Edge was done during lower Globex Volume. Will enough buying come in at this area to give us a hold above/inside this Edge and we try to make another push towards VAL/ and new Value or will this push start running out of juice and we start coming back in filling the push with Supply.
For now our range is 5012.50 - 5060.75, Current Intrarange Support 5095.50 - 92.50 Current Key Resistance 5112.50 - 07.50. For us to attempt anything higher into above VAL we would need to take out 5112.50 - 07.50 as we now have Supply above it which could keep us under. If we build up enough Supply or selling comes in to break 5095.50 - 92.50 we could see a move towards 5081 - 77.75, Key Support for this range would be 5065.75 - 60.75 this is bottom of the Edge we need to hold around for this break out to stay valid with hopes for higher continuation. If we can't hold this area then we can start coming back in targeting previous VAH/Value as it would be a failure in new range which could ultimately target lower Edge of Previous Range again.
If selling is not strong then we could just balance in this new Edge/VAL/Mean area until enough supply builds up to come in or more buyers come in to keep going towards above VAH, this could take some time to resolve or if volume comes in then could see next move quicker.
Best thing is to take it range to range level to level.
Levels to watch :
Current Key Resistance : 5112.50 - 5107.50
Targets above 5129 - 25 // 5144 - 40.25
Current Intrarange Support : 5095.50 - 92.50
Targets under 5086.25 - 81 - 77.75 // Key Support for any continuation lower 5066.50 - 60.67
Comment:
So far Globex tested under 95.50 - 92.50 but not enough selling came in to continue under. If we cant get under 95.50-92.50 we can rotate back towards Key Resistance, if we take out 07.50-12.50 and more buying comes in we can see about testing above VAL at 5125-29 area. We would need to see break of 95.50-92.50 and selling/holds under to move lower. And careful with longs over VAL if we get there as it may not see much continuation beyond it.
Comment:
Yesterday we failed to take out 5107.50 - 12.50 Key Resistance and stayed in current range, once enough Supply built up we were able to break 5095.50 - 92.50 Support and hit lower targets at 86.25 - 81 - 77.75, we tested under 81 - 77.75 last night but so far came back in and holding over. So far going into today we are in 5107.50 - 5065.75 Range, we have more Supply built up over 5095.50 - 92.50 Which will be our Intrarange Resistance, 5081 - 77.75 is Current Intrarange Support. If more selling comes in and we take out current support we could see a move down to test Key Support at 5066.50 - 60.75 but if we can't break and accept under then we should stay in this Current Range for time being, if we do take it out we would look for continuation towards Previous VAH under it with next level to watch at 5048.75 - 45.75. If we do stay in Current Range then longs could work from Support areas if market shows it but for anything bigger we would need to accept back over 5095.50 - 92.50.
Comment:
So far RTH brought in more selling and it seems like we are taking this Current Intrarange Support but not enough selling to continue towards Key Support, careful forcing for continuation lower as we may just hold and balance in this area without continuation to Key Support and if selling runs out at some point then we could still see a push towards Current Resistance at 5092.50 - 95.50 once we are ready but as mentioned we have Supply above so careful looking for too much continuation from there as we may hold under today. We would need to see stronger continuation towards 66.50 to tell us larger sellers are present, if not we will stay balancing above.
Comment:
So far Globex last night opened under 5095.50 - 92.50 Resistance, as mentioned yesterday we have Supply over that area and need to watch out for anything higher from there unless we can take it out and accept. We ended up consolidating under and get a move down to Key Support which we finally tagged after failing to do so yesterday. Key Support still provided good buying and now we are again balancing in this lower Range. Going into today we now have more RTH and Globex Supply built up over 5081 - 77.75 that will be our Resistance going into RTH which Key area we need to hold over being 86.25 for any continuation higher, If buying is not strong enough then we can continue building up under this area and once enough Supply builds up we can see about getting an RTH test of Key Support at 5066.50 - 60.75, We would need to break and accept under for continuation towards lower VAH with targets at 5055 - 48.75 - 45.75 this would be next area to watch if we get there.
Comment:
Yesterday we got a failed break down at 5066.50-60.75 area which was KEY area to break for any continuation lower. As noted on Sunday market needed to either find strong bid on first test around the Edge or Consolidate inside it in order to attempt another move for above VAL and maybe try to push inside Value. After yesterdays failed break we had enough consolidation to give us a nice push on Data over 86 which was an area we needed to hold over in order to attempt VAL push. After RTH flush under we came back over and held over 86 all afternoon for end of day push into Key Resistance which was met with a sell at the end of the day. So far going into today we had Globex tag bottom of VAL but after a failed push inside we came back under Resistance which gave a nice short back towards the Edge, so far we were not able to tag the Edge which tells us we trapped some more shorts down there and have Support for now, going into today we could need to take out 5095.50 - 92.50 and get under 86 to attempt a move lower BUT if we can't and enough buying comes in to take out Key Resistance at 07.50-12.50 then we could see about making another push into Value, its Friday and first day of the month so I wouldn't expect a big squeeze but 5125-29 area could be possible. If we can't take out Key Resistance we could spend the day balancing between that and 95.50-92.50 - 86 areas which is Current Support.