ES Futures - Things are looking Up!
We have been stuck in regression channel for a week. Chart attached at the bottom.
It was broken this afternoon - I was able to short against it at 6 AM EST - and got stopped out this afternoon.
So here's what we know - 4450 the highlighted level is the 50% retracement and is the line in the sand.
The interesting thing is the Point of Control is at 4444.50 - because they couldn't make it 4444.44 - I say jokingly but thats pretty much the control MM have.
Since 4226 - the ES has not left one point of control behind everyone of them has been returned to since. We might leave this one behind - for now.
Right now if we return to 4450 this will be supported. Its been three days of building this out - its where the buying has taken place.
Looking for a buy it should be here. Most likely the Euro overnight crowd will make that happen.
This may be a blow off top - so you need to very careful shorting this market.
This move down is like most the moves up with divergence - and they can stay divergent (or break it) longer than most can stay solvent. They need to run the stops to pickup the contracts to go long. A move the other direction is coming!
VIX is 21 with negative divergence (they're holding it up)
There will be a relief rally next week - if not Monday the question will be 4444. This needs to broken to the upside. 4426 is todays Point of Control.
This Quad Witching is something that personally I have underestimated - I got it wrong.
4493 will provide support There is a big High Volume Node as well as the .786 Fib. There is a scenario that we could go down to about 4370 that I posted privately that I'll attach in the comment section. The thing about that chart is we finished right at exactly 50% level between trendlines. If this the chart to use - we could backtest all the way to about 4480 and then fail from there. So there is a lot up in the air.
I read today that this week is the historically worst week for the SPX.
I'll remember that for next year.