ES Futures - The violence of it all - and plan for next week.
So firstly Thursday and Fridays price action.
We back tested to a Point of Control which I actually nailed 4530 (even a broken clock is right twice a day). See attached chart to view my blind luck.
Then down to 4484 high volume node which held, up to backtest the .236 Fib (4502) then back to 4484 which failed but held at the .38 Fib (4472) then back 4484 support but it became resistance.
During that time a Point of Control was carved out at .382 Fib (4472) before barfing all the way down .50 retrace 4451. Call it a long squeeze.
Once again this all very controlled - these levels were drawn out in JP Morgans boardroom with Goldman Sachs on Zoom I'm sure - only half kidding, its so well executed.
However there was some violence to it in order to shake out longs - they broke down positive divergence to take out new longs. Have to get the contracts from somewhere!
It was a nasty leg down late on Friday afternoon.
So next week:
Frankly its hard to tell - one things is sure the Fib levels matter.
1) Based the greediest scenario we go past last months Point of Control at 4436 and get down to 4425 the .618 Fib - enough to scare the children and convince the world to go short that's it - the bull market is over.
This mixes it up a bit as everyone will be looking at last months POC as the line in the sand - this has been what has played out for the past few months. Its OpEx this week so volatility is a given.
Personally I favor this - this is psychology not technical analysis.
2) We get down to 4436 the high volume node holds and we move back up.
3) We gap up Sunday night and never look back.
4472 is open point of control and the .382 Fib, in all likelihood the market will be back early in the week.
There was contract roll so things are bit skewed - the fib levels are accurate.
Comment:
Well the High Volume Nodes provided for resistance at the bottom and the top.
Taking out the point of control at the same time.
Feels like they loaded the boat Friday and today. As we spent a good deal of time in the basement. Personal bias is long - we have been fighting VWAP the last couple of days, and we are above it now.
Taking out the point of control at the same time.
Feels like they loaded the boat Friday and today. As we spent a good deal of time in the basement. Personal bias is long - we have been fighting VWAP the last couple of days, and we are above it now.
Comment:
See attached chart of SPX - all is revealed ;)
Comment:
Its funny one day its HVN the next its Fibs.
Today - Fibs stopped on a dime at the .618% Fib
Be watching the HVNs tomorrow.
On a one hour chart we are stuck in regression channel when we hit the level we sell.
This is manipulation - if we were to really go lower there wouldn't this kind of control IMO.
I'll attach a chart in comments section below.
Today - Fibs stopped on a dime at the .618% Fib
Be watching the HVNs tomorrow.
On a one hour chart we are stuck in regression channel when we hit the level we sell.
This is manipulation - if we were to really go lower there wouldn't this kind of control IMO.
I'll attach a chart in comments section below.
This is 25 points overnight.
The levels outlined are still important and there is a likelihood they will be visited.
With one more level sitting at 4391 (4401) .786 Fib. Again this is a high volume node.