I don't have a lot of time today, but wanted to get out a quick update. This idea came to me as I was looking at complex triple corrections last night and saw similar pattern on the recent SP500/ES price movement.
The reasons I like this idea are both 1. Technical - bearish divergence on hourly RSI, weak volume, possible break of upward channel this morning (would be confirmed under 2670 on ES) - and 2. Psychological - many people are expecting a simple ABC to 2900 and many others are expecting us to reach new lows very soon (I was in that camp until this week).
So what happens if we do neither and fake both bulls and bears out? Well, then we have a correction like this.
Now, we COULD go higher than 2750 before this happens - but if we get below 2670, it would help the case that the recent uptrend is broken and this idea may be taking shape.
I've been really missing the ball lately, so please just keep this in your mind as an option, not in any way a certainty. We could easily get to 2900 this week or we could completely fail here and go to 2100.
Right now, I like this idea for the reasons stated above. I wish you the best of luck on your trades
The reasons I like this idea are both 1. Technical - bearish divergence on hourly RSI, weak volume, possible break of upward channel this morning (would be confirmed under 2670 on ES) - and 2. Psychological - many people are expecting a simple ABC to 2900 and many others are expecting us to reach new lows very soon (I was in that camp until this week).
So what happens if we do neither and fake both bulls and bears out? Well, then we have a correction like this.
Now, we COULD go higher than 2750 before this happens - but if we get below 2670, it would help the case that the recent uptrend is broken and this idea may be taking shape.
I've been really missing the ball lately, so please just keep this in your mind as an option, not in any way a certainty. We could easily get to 2900 this week or we could completely fail here and go to 2100.
Right now, I like this idea for the reasons stated above. I wish you the best of luck on your trades
