ES_F Day Trading Prep for Week 2.05 - 2.09
What a wild week last week! Lets take a look at our structure going into this week and what can we expect or at least lean on going forward. Market has been mostly slow and grindy but still provided plenty of fireworks.
Last Week: Last week we saw inventory was starting to get long at our Key HTF Edge area which gave us a nice move down towards lower VAH and the Mean where we needed to accept under in order to see continuation but market held that area and anyone who shorted under 4900 on that inventory correction got trapped mid week and got squeezed out Thursday/Friday with a nice move over next Key Resistance and over upper VAL.
This week: So far our structure shows us the push over 4972-67 Key Resistance and VAH above was possibly a buy in/or a weaker move over as we didn't have full clean break and not really seeing a good cost basis under to rely on, we were able to push over 4984-88 Intrarange Resistance but failed after the tag of next level up at 5001.75-4997.75 and got a nice end of day sell back into the Key Break out area at 4972.
This 4972-67 will be our Key Support to watch going into tonight/tomorrow, if the market can hold and build some structure above it then we can start thinking that we still have buying up here at these prices, then would watch for another attempt over 4988.25-84.25 towards upper targets which would be 5001.5-4997.75 and Next Key Resistance would be at 5019-13.75 Area if we can get there.
If we can't hold over 4972-67 that would bring us back into previous range with Supply trapped over 4980s and that could bring selling back towards the Edge, this will be important spot this week as this tells us if we accept in new HTF range above 4945-20 or not. We have some single prints Under 4952.50 which we may attempt to fill and if we cant hold over 4952.50-45, we have weak lows right at Edge Support of 4925.20, this would be a Key Spot for any continuation lower this week. If we do get weakness and move lower we have to be careful and see if we get strong selling or more of a leak/consolidation/leak lower which would be trapping longs on the way down and Edge may hold this week or until we have enough Supply or Volume to get back under it. If or when edge breaks our targets would be VAH / Mean / VAL and at some point HTF Lower Edge but this could take time to play out which means we have to trade what we get between the range levels.
Levels to Watch :
Current Resistance 4984.25-88.25
Potential Targets if above 5001.75-4997.75 // 5019-13.75
Targets above would be 5041.50-28.50
Current Support ? 4972-67
Targets under 4955.75-52.50 - 45 // 40.50-37.75 and Key Support at 4925.25-20
IF Key Support breaks lower levels to watch 4907.50-04 // 4892-88 // Key Support 75-69
Lower areas of interest in case volume comes in Mean and VAL at 4839.50-29.25
Last Week: Last week we saw inventory was starting to get long at our Key HTF Edge area which gave us a nice move down towards lower VAH and the Mean where we needed to accept under in order to see continuation but market held that area and anyone who shorted under 4900 on that inventory correction got trapped mid week and got squeezed out Thursday/Friday with a nice move over next Key Resistance and over upper VAL.
This week: So far our structure shows us the push over 4972-67 Key Resistance and VAH above was possibly a buy in/or a weaker move over as we didn't have full clean break and not really seeing a good cost basis under to rely on, we were able to push over 4984-88 Intrarange Resistance but failed after the tag of next level up at 5001.75-4997.75 and got a nice end of day sell back into the Key Break out area at 4972.
This 4972-67 will be our Key Support to watch going into tonight/tomorrow, if the market can hold and build some structure above it then we can start thinking that we still have buying up here at these prices, then would watch for another attempt over 4988.25-84.25 towards upper targets which would be 5001.5-4997.75 and Next Key Resistance would be at 5019-13.75 Area if we can get there.
If we can't hold over 4972-67 that would bring us back into previous range with Supply trapped over 4980s and that could bring selling back towards the Edge, this will be important spot this week as this tells us if we accept in new HTF range above 4945-20 or not. We have some single prints Under 4952.50 which we may attempt to fill and if we cant hold over 4952.50-45, we have weak lows right at Edge Support of 4925.20, this would be a Key Spot for any continuation lower this week. If we do get weakness and move lower we have to be careful and see if we get strong selling or more of a leak/consolidation/leak lower which would be trapping longs on the way down and Edge may hold this week or until we have enough Supply or Volume to get back under it. If or when edge breaks our targets would be VAH / Mean / VAL and at some point HTF Lower Edge but this could take time to play out which means we have to trade what we get between the range levels.
Levels to Watch :
Current Resistance 4984.25-88.25
Potential Targets if above 5001.75-4997.75 // 5019-13.75
Targets above would be 5041.50-28.50
Current Support ? 4972-67
Targets under 4955.75-52.50 - 45 // 40.50-37.75 and Key Support at 4925.25-20
IF Key Support breaks lower levels to watch 4907.50-04 // 4892-88 // Key Support 75-69
Lower areas of interest in case volume comes in Mean and VAL at 4839.50-29.25
Comment:
Globex mostly held under 4972 all night, we didn't have enough buying to keep us in the new range, as mentioned we had Supply trapped over 80s. When RTH volume came in we were able to finally break 4972-67 and get the move lower towards the Edge, were able to hit couple lower targets and found Support at intrarange 4940.50-37.75 Level. Market made another attempt over 4972-67 but again failed to accept over with end of day sell back to 4955.75-52.50 area. As mentioned Edge is an important spot so we will most likely see buying in or around it until there is enough supply or volume to get through it, unless of course we accept higher and continue. For now going forward into tonight/tomorrow we are in 4972 - 20 range. If we can't accept over Key Resistance we will continue to trade in this range until we are ready to move. Levels to watch here Key Resistance 4972-67 // Current Support 4955.75-52.50 // 4940.50-37.75 and Key Support for anything lower will be 4925.25-20.
Comment:
So far Globex tested Key Resistance at night which held and tested Intrarange Support which also held and gave a push back to Resistance. IF we are able to get through Key Resistance again we can see if we have enough juice to get up to or close to 4984.25 area which would be above target. That would be next resistance area to watch, if we again fail to hold over 4972-67 after that test and come back in RTH that could again bring in selling to test Support and maybe Previous Day Low especially if we run this Resistance during Pre market hours then there will be more of a chance to come back in later. If we do accept over 72-67 and don't come back in then we will look to trade in our new range above. And of course if we ail to run it then we will continue to trade in current range until we are ready to get through one side or the other.
Comment:
Market failed over Key Resistance again and gave a nice sell to our Intrarange Support 55.75-52.50, have to be careful looking for continuation from here unless Support breaks later on because if we dont have the volume we could continue to balance in this area as we are inside Previous Day and T2 ranges, we can spend more time here until we are ready to move out.
Comment:
Market spent all day balancing between Key Resistance 72-67 and Current Support 55.75-52.50. We made another push into Key Resistance end of day and this time we closed within, going into tonight/tomorrow we will be watching if it becomes Support and we try to push towards 4984.25-88.25 or if we get back under 72-67. So far we don't have strong enough selling to break intrarange Support and continue for the weak lows which tells us move lower is not ready yet. If we do get to 84.25-88.25 area we have to be careful looking for continuation, it would be Intrarange Resistance area and if buying is not strong over 80s then wont be surprised to see 55.75-52.50 again at some point. We would need to start holding above 72-67 and build up some structure to have a chance over 84-88 towards next targets, we have consolidated a decent amount under 72-67 and it might provide some Support for time being but we will have to see if it sticks IF we even get over. We don't have any news or range moving data this week so its possibly that this Key Resistance will act as a temp Mean for us with 84.25-88.25 and 55.75-52.50 areas of reversal until broken.
Comment:
As mentioned last night IF 72-67 holds we should see next target up at 84.25-88.25 and it could be a reversal area until broken. Globex opened and pushed into it but failed to tag/break. All night we consolidated this time above 72-67 not below like on Sunday/Monday and this gave us a push to 84.25-88. We got through it this time around and most likely trapped more shorts under 80s now for potential Support. RTH Might be tricky to trade as we are now in distribution over 84. Next level to watch from here is 5001.75-97.75 but need to be careful as buying is just from trapped shorts mostly and momentum longs. We are now in this ranges Value and personally move from 72 to 84 was enough for me to let this distribution play out and not trade in Value, maybe catch a correction back towards 84-88 at some point later if it happens and if not will wait and see how it plays out. If we do get over 5001.75-97.75 and have more buying come in we have Key Resistance at 4519-13.75 area.
Comment:
Yesterday we got enough buying after we took out 84.25-88.25 to take out 01.75-97.75 and get into next Key Resistance area at 5019-13.75 and so far we found good selling there that kept us under in this 5019-4967 range. Today we will be looking to see what we do in this area, we are currently holding Over/Inside the Mean area which tells us there might still be a chance to attempt at 4028.50 VAH area if we get some more buying and can take out Key Resistance but also tells us buying here is not that strong and it was mostly shorts getting bought in at Resistance and not new longs taking it higher but if supply under this area runs out we could grind our way towards next target. That would be next Key Area to watch for potentially more selling to bring us back down under 5019-13.75 area if we get there and or acceptance. If we can't take out Key Resistance and get the buying to get us towards next target then we could see an inside day and get some balancing action between Key Resistance and Current Intrarange Support at 5001.75-4997.75, this would need to break to attempt at any lower targets which would be the move back towards VAL at 88.25-84.2. Current Key Support would be 4972-67. Area under 88 is our Gap from yesterdays move and an area where we got shorts trapped which should act as Support until we have enough Supply to Break/Fill.
Comment:
What a grind today, not enough selling volume to get back to Intrarange Support and we spent all day consolidating under Key Resistance. As mentioned earlier holding over/top of Mean could mean that there is still buying and even though it might be a grind but our target still might be higher until we start getting some better short action, a lot of people are trying to find the top here and keep shorting which just provides the fuel for the grind as they have to cover to get out as market is still not going lower. We are again at Key Resistance of this range wand our next target IF we can take it out and continue grinding higher would be the 5028.50-30s area which could provide some selling on first tests but need to be careful and let the market set up for bigger opportunities as this grind can continue until we build up enough Supply to have a better sell. We are at ATH area and we either need Size Sellers or Supply to go lower, shorts are trapped and are forced to cover at higher prices, longs will also be choppy and slow because buyers here are not really eager to buy. On bigger picture we are in 4945-25 - 5066-86 range, we may first set up and make a move outside of Value from VAH towards the upper Edge to test or fail by before we can say we have found the top and will be ready to come back inside for better short opportunity, but this might take some time to play out/clean up and set up as a lot got trapped shorting the highs and could be a grind until we are ready to come back in. For now we trade level to level. our levels to watch are 5019-13.75 // Next Range levels will be 5034-31 (28.50) // 5048.75-5045.75 // Next Key 5065.75-5060.75. Below us we have 5001.75-97.75 which would need to break for any continuation lower.
Comment:
So far Globex 5019-13.75 area acted as Support and we are coming up to next target which is our VAH, today we watch if we can stay in VAH if we get inside and try to push for VAH top into higher targets over 34-31 level IF we get there or if we get some selling to get us back towards the mean with possibly targets back to 5019-13.75 if that doesnt hold as Support RTH then could see further push inside the Mean towards Previous Day low and 5001.75-97.75 Target. If don't get the selling the we could continue grinding in that area over 28.50 but so far this push was done during Globex hours and we don't have any market moving data or news today to really keep us in a new range on a Friday, which usually gives a good chance for a correction at some point in RTH, this would be a good spot for profit taking before the weekend and could finally provide some selling. Remember trading level to level is the key right now as you can capture 10-12-15p moves doing that and in current market conditions thats really all you need if you trade it properly.
Comment:
VAH fully hit, careful long if we cant get back in as we can see a correction back to previous Key Area which is 19-13.75 and remember if doesnt hold RTH today then can see lower Intrarange support targets test.