Flag Breakout, Looking for Bullish S/R Flip
Price & RSI showing a breakout of potential flag pattern (orange channel).
Question is whether it can make a move to new highs or whether recent resistance will hold up.
3150 is strong resistance for the last few weeks. A complete S/R flip would likely coincide with a MACD crossover and RSI crossover above 60 signaling another bullish ally to new recent highs.
Failure to break 3150 in the short term would likely result in flattening of RSI and MACD, coinciding with a pullback to the rising support (black trend line) which would create the appearance of aanascending triangle pattern. That should be support, but if that gives, no reason not to expect a move to the bottom of the channel (blue channel) which is drawn off the March bottom.
Short term bias is neutral.
Will go bullish on break and test of 3150 - no point in entering a position before that is confirmed support.
Question is whether it can make a move to new highs or whether recent resistance will hold up.
3150 is strong resistance for the last few weeks. A complete S/R flip would likely coincide with a MACD crossover and RSI crossover above 60 signaling another bullish ally to new recent highs.
Failure to break 3150 in the short term would likely result in flattening of RSI and MACD, coinciding with a pullback to the rising support (black trend line) which would create the appearance of aanascending triangle pattern. That should be support, but if that gives, no reason not to expect a move to the bottom of the channel (blue channel) which is drawn off the March bottom.
Short term bias is neutral.
Will go bullish on break and test of 3150 - no point in entering a position before that is confirmed support.
Comment:
Making it look like we will see a h/s pattern, just like back in May. The patterns are very similar. There was heavy sell pressure today pushing the price down, but good reaction the 3110 level buying it back up. Idea is still in tact.
Making it look like we will see a h/s pattern, just like back in May. The patterns are very similar. There was heavy sell pressure today pushing the price down, but good reaction the 3110 level buying it back up. Idea is still in tact.
Trade active:
Entered into a few calls during the dip.
Spy 7/13 $320 strikes - price of purchase $0.38 each
Spy 7/17 $325 strikes - price of purchase $0.45 each
Will likely add another position, 7/24 strike, at breakout of the 3175 level.
Spy 7/13 $320 strikes - price of purchase $0.38 each
Spy 7/17 $325 strikes - price of purchase $0.45 each
Will likely add another position, 7/24 strike, at breakout of the 3175 level.
Trade active:
Decay is a killer. Move is going as planned, not fast enough so far.
7/13 $320 strikes - now $0.55 each
7/17 $325 strikes - now at $0.74 each
Added 8/21 $340 strikes - price of purchase $1.17 each, now $1.39 each.
These probably should have been 7/24. But I wanted more room to breathe.
Looking for the gap up on Monday, similar to 5/25's 2% jump. Would result in exponential gains on the 7/13s which I plan to sell at open no matter price. If it does gap, I expect a immediate pull back before continuation higher, so those need to go with the limited clock.
7/13 $320 strikes - now $0.55 each
7/17 $325 strikes - now at $0.74 each
Added 8/21 $340 strikes - price of purchase $1.17 each, now $1.39 each.
These probably should have been 7/24. But I wanted more room to breathe.
Looking for the gap up on Monday, similar to 5/25's 2% jump. Would result in exponential gains on the 7/13s which I plan to sell at open no matter price. If it does gap, I expect a immediate pull back before continuation higher, so those need to go with the limited clock.
Best Target Long Entry at 3100 ES/310 SPY.
Breakout Late Entry at 3175 ES/317.5 SPY