SPX - Transitory WTF? / Persistently SHORT (DEBT CEILING/USTs)

FED DAY...Does it really matter?
G20 one week later...Does it really matter?

"Reality-TV" at its Best and the leading character President Tweet (T). The best soap opera in town...the Fed & Mr.T, they were made for each other! I have no clue what direction this thing will go between today and Monday 01July,19, but it will eventually go down, they always do! Up or Down, its Never a straight line!

NO Sustaining Macro to continue the momentum.
Unknown Unknowns: 1) Fed cuts immediately and start QE; 2) Mr. T announces end of China TW G20 weekend...be prepared for Drama = Volatility!

It Doesn't Matter...DEBT CEILLING, NO ability to write UST's (Global Banking Liquidity), Government Spending STOPS (6-8 Weeks)...the battle lines are being drawn and NO ONE is talking about it! This is the single trigger that could start a recession and the incompetents do not understand any of it or the consequences...TBD! Keep a Reserve! Good Entry PT coming...

Comment:

“We did not think that a Trump-Xi meeting would materialize, but there have been some noises in recent days that suggested some movement was afoot. Perhaps a short-term trade deal may be politically more advantageous than standing on ceremony and demanding one deal that resolves all the multi-dimensional complexities.  Mnuchin's deal from last year might not look so bad.  Trump's language has changed.  From wanting a "grand deal or no deal," the US President now says a "fair deal" is desired.”  
www.marctomarket.com...6/still-patient.html

NOTHING would surprise me…Two words do not come out of my mouth, Never & Always! TBD!

Comment:

If you ask McElligott, Powell can “thread the needle” without pulling the trigger (to mix metaphors) “via a very clear message on Fed easing intentions going forward.”

By that he means the statement would drop the reference to “patience” (if they retain that it will be a disaster, by the way), by deploying the “insurance” language in the course of discussing the preparedness to act (Bernanke would call it “courage”), and by “dropping dots to neutral/towards EFFR and potentially bringing forward the end of QT even sooner.”

What would that entail for markets? Well, according to McElligott, it would mean this:

This above scenario—no “cut” but powerful “dovish” guidance—would likely see Rates and Equities initially impulse selloff, before stabilizing again thereafter, as markets realize that cuts are even a greater inevitability—thus, those future Fed cuts simply get pushed out into 2020 with calendar spreads inverting further negative.

Comment:

Bottom Line: The Fed greenlit a July rate cut. The dots suggest more will follow, with a minimum of 50bp on the way. While I think July is pretty much locked in, future cuts are of course data dependent. --Tim Duy's Fed Watch

Watch the Debt Ceiling...The battle of the incompetents!

Good Luck!