The market continues to defy gravity.
Looks like we'll hit 4600 range and then have a 14% correction back to the bottom of the channel some time in May/June.
From the looks of it, we may break out of this channel to the upside. Many of us were expecting a breakout to the downside and bears were trapped hard last Friday (I was one of them, though I should have seen it was a beautiful bounce from the bottom of the channel). I really expected 3550 given the rising 10Y and the weekly RSI divergence. One of my favorite technical guys, ShadowTrader, always says, "when what should've happened doesn't" implying it'll go to the extremes of the opposite side of what you were expecting when it fails to do what it was supposed to do originally. This narrative fits with the ew count shown here and target dates, topping in May/June.
This upcoming 2 should happen last week of March and first week of April. Interestingly, the fibs for the upcoming 2 coincide with each trend line inside our channel. The 2s have been shallow for the 14 months so it's possible we only retest the top of the channel at the 23% mark and then resume up for 3/4/5 in a parabolic move up. GL, happy trading, safe trading, and this is not investment advice. :)
Looks like we'll hit 4600 range and then have a 14% correction back to the bottom of the channel some time in May/June.
From the looks of it, we may break out of this channel to the upside. Many of us were expecting a breakout to the downside and bears were trapped hard last Friday (I was one of them, though I should have seen it was a beautiful bounce from the bottom of the channel). I really expected 3550 given the rising 10Y and the weekly RSI divergence. One of my favorite technical guys, ShadowTrader, always says, "when what should've happened doesn't" implying it'll go to the extremes of the opposite side of what you were expecting when it fails to do what it was supposed to do originally. This narrative fits with the ew count shown here and target dates, topping in May/June.
This upcoming 2 should happen last week of March and first week of April. Interestingly, the fibs for the upcoming 2 coincide with each trend line inside our channel. The 2s have been shallow for the 14 months so it's possible we only retest the top of the channel at the 23% mark and then resume up for 3/4/5 in a parabolic move up. GL, happy trading, safe trading, and this is not investment advice. :)
Comment:
Just a note - if we're going to respect the upper boundary of this channel, then it will take a very long time for these waves to play out. Middle of July just for the 3.
Comment:
So far, perfect bounce off of the .38 for a mini 4. Looks like we should get to 4000-4034 next week.