E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5246.25, up 7.25 on Friday and 91.50 on the week

NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 18,255, up 40.50 on Friday and 254.25 on the week

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures secured a strong week despite hotter than expected 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.5% versus 3.2% via the politically fueled Michigan Consumer survey on Friday. The dataset also highlighted eroding Sentiment and Expectations hitting six-month lows. For the record, many studies are proving the survey to be politically divided, something that always can play a factor in soft data, especially during an election year, as opposed to hard data using analytics. Furthermore, the mounting inflation expectations are likely a byproduct of a worsening consumer; if your wallet is stretched, costs become more of a burden. This sets the stage for a pivotal week ahead. PPI is due tomorrow, and CPI and Retail Sales will be released on Wednesday. Remember, producer prices are a leading indicator of consumer prices. It has been no secret that inflation remained more stubborn in the first quarter than expected at the onset. We are of the belief we begin seeing some of those tailwinds reined in. Fed Chair Powell will also be on the docket tomorrow, speaking at an international conference. He has been noted saying that inflation expectations are a self-fulfilling prophecy; imagine if you know gas prices will be higher next week, you will fill your car up this week.

Price action leading into the opening bell Friday was enthusiastic before a whipsaw of profit taking was met with hotter than expected inflation expectations. Still, the tape worked itself higher from a 10:30 am CT low that now aligns as major three-star support in the E-mini S&P at 5232.75-5236 and a similar level in the E-mini NQ at 18,179-18,204. Thursday’s strength pushed the indices out above a bull-flag consolidation pattern, and we view this major three-star support as defining that breakout and a line in the sand fueling a push toward record highs. Despite our optimism, let us not ignore headwinds. It is no coincidence that price action stopped where it did Friday, as we had major three-star resistance noted overhead, and we must see a break above here in order to keep fueling broader optimism.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 5260.25-5266.25***, 5272.50-5274.25**, 5287.75-5292.75**, 5207-5208.50***, 5215.25-5221****

Pivot: 5250.75

Support: 5243.25-5246.25***, 5232.75-5236***, 5226.75**, 5218.75-52120.75***, 5213-5215.25***, 5200.75-5204.25***, 5184.75-5191.25***

NQ (June)

Resistance: 18,326-18,348***, 18,485*** 18,558-18,607***

Pivot: 18,255-18,271

Support: 18,228-18,237**, 18,179-18,204***, 18,108-18,129**, 18,042-18,078***, 17,962-17,986**, 17,893-17,930***, 17,805-17,826**, 17,743-17,793*** 17,649-17,690****



Micro Bitcoin (May)

Last week’s close: Settled at 60,950, down 1,890 on Friday and 1,640 on the week

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 63,440-63,900**, 64,750-64,975**, 65,335*, 66,045-66,552***, 67,155-67,965***, 68,829**, 71,625-71,646***

Pivot: 62,750-63,105

Support: 62,110-62,590***, 61,725**, 60,950-61,060***, 60,386-60,410****, 59,765**, 56,472-57,355***, 55,000-55,290***, 52,240***, 47,000****


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