wernervonsims

ETC/USD BFX - Daily equilibrium and descending triangle

Short
BITFINEX:ETCUSD   Ethereum Classic
Here we see a tightening daily equilibrium/ descending triangle with 17.44 as our most recent resistance and 15.734 /15.713 /15.651 essentially triple bottom support. The daily equilibrium is reflected in the third weekly inside bar and if we stay inside the range of 15.712-18.39 we will form the forth weekly inside bar on Sunday 30th July. Depending on BTC, we could see a clear break within the next 7-14 days. The break of this pattern will likely be accompanied by a spike in volume which is currently consolidating on the daily and weekly timeframe. Here we will only discuss a bear break scenario, because there are more favorable setups for a bull break on daily equilibriums like ETH/USD or EOS/USD in my opinion.

For a bear entries you could:
1) either go short near our daily lower high (potentially already set at 17.44)
2) short the break of the triple bottom support at 15.651 (more conservative entry)

My gameplan is 1), to go short on overbought conditions on the 5 and 15min and set a stop-loss above 17.44. This is a low risk entry IMO since the bulls couldn't keep the price in 5/15min overbought condition for long in recent history. I will sell enough of my position to higher my price average so I will be in ~1% profit if my stop-loss get's hit just to be safe. You can add to your short position on the break of the 4hr equilibrium (which is also the daily inside bar) at 16.612 and at the conformation of the descending triangle/ daily equilibrium bear break at 15.651.

Weekly timeframe: In a downtrend since a couple of months (lower highs and lower lows); third inside bar forming

Daily timeframe: daily equilibrium/ descending triangle; second inside bar forming

4hr timeframe: 4hr equilibrium
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