Is Ethereum lining up for a Sell the news EIP 1559 event?

First of all, this is in Australian dollars, not US. (Multiply by AUDUSD, or Divide by USDAUD to get the equivalent USD corresponding values)

There's a lot more of this cycle, but the next 3-6 months are going to be interesting whatever happens.

One scenario I wonder if it may play out, is Ethereum hitting it second Fibonacci extension from the top of the prior market cycle in the weeks leading up to the London Upgrade and implementation of EIP1559. There will be probably be some sell orders here as fibonacci extensions are a typical target for traders. This might cause a 'sell the news' kind of event, just as people are taking on leverage meaning we'll have liquidations and a long squeeze.

However, as most of you are aware with at least 2 cycles so far, and looking like there's a high probability of a 3rd, of Bitcoin going parabolic on a logarithmic scale. So, my expectation would be that we'll have a retrace (much like the Chinese Crypto ban FUD of 2017) before launching into the next phase of a parabolic run. I would expect that most whales who sell here, will buy at prior levels of support (perhaps $3,000 AUD if looking at a 61.8% retracement, or 2500 if a 50%, both lining up with prior areas of considlidation)

On breaking back out above 4500 area, into price discovery mode again, then look to the 1.618 ($7100) and 2.618 ($11200) for the next levels of resistance which could occur in Q4 of 2021. Difficult to make specific predictions as no-one can predict the future and of course and adding in the effects of a FOMO blow off top, we might even get higher than that.

Comment:

This market never ceases to amaze me. Ethereum looking like it has entered a parabolic rally in the recent days and weeks. Getting a little hot right now, but it doesn't show much int eh way of slowing. IF there is a sell the news event, perhaps it will be from much higher. Who knows?