Welcome to the (crypto) Currency Wars ETH/BTC Chart
Before we get into the elliot wave analysis and price action, let's talk about what's happening in the market which seems pretty obvious to the aware observer. Bitcoin price action has has been suggesting a big drop down (see here:
) where as somebody out there (or some group of somebodies is throwing everything they have at ethereum to try to prevent the above--obviously both markets have become linked together to some extent and are both inextricably linked to the wider cryptocurrency market). The 'eth cabal' is hoping to make eth the dominant coin in the market, or the dog and bitcoin the tail, i'm not quite sure bitcoin the king is going to submit : ) Nor do I look forward to such a world tbqf with you. If we break down we can cleanse the world of this coin's exaggerated importance and technical view which many believe is not sustainable in the long term.
The price action compared between the two coins over the last couple of weeks clearly suggest a vying for the top dog spot in the market. Bitcoin made a clear TA break down, and ETH quite stubbornly refused to follow. Imo this disagreement between the two simply can not coexist for long. If bitcoin is too remain king, as it obviously should (I find it wild that ethereum, considering it's fundamentals, has been able to peform as it has for this long, but I am certainly impressed by it) then it likely needs to take eth down with it. Bitcoin has a much more faithful community that has been through many crashes before only to become more convinced as to it's status as the worlds base money, eth would have a much tougher time as it's much more frothy of a market filled with momentum traders, dumb money, and those I spoke of earlier who simply have realized the world is transitioning to cryptocurrency--so they would rather propel a coin they can have more influence and control over into the spotlight over bitcoin which they missed out on as far as being a major whale.
Elliot Wave:
I believe we are in the conclusion of a big complex correction representing wave 4 of wave C. If Eth were to win the war (really a battle I suppose) than we could see ethereum overtake bitcoin in market cap. The price is at a decision point here. I'll spare you why I think this would be silly from a fundamental standpoint and stick to the technicals. To argue for the bullish picture, you would likely have to argue that all the price action I have deemed wave 4 would be the start of a new impulsive wave up, which it clearly is not showing any impulsive characteristics or signs of (feel free to show me why i'm wrong). The only other count in my mind would be to claim my wave x is actually a 5th wave failure to conclude wave C. Of the two scenarios mentioned above, this would make at least a bit more sense as the faily violent subsequent price action to the upside would be confirmative, but i'm sorry I just don't see it for a couple of reasons. For starters, if it was a 5th wave failure, wave x would be impulsive, which it is not. Further, if it was a 5th wave failure, what I have as wave a would actually be wave 1 of a new trend up, and thus impulsive, *which it is not*. Since it is corrective, this corroborated my count of a-b-c for wave y of a complex correction for wave 4 as wave b retraces >61% thus abc must be a flat correction *not a zig zag* thus a 3-3-5...so a would have to be corrective, or a '3'. Make sense?
Lastly, there is a 1.618 fib relationship between the price of wave 1 and wave 3, which is typically the case when wave 5 is going to extend. An extended 5th wave here would imply some real ominous price targets, even beyond what I have on the chart but the aggressive side of things can be harder to achieve when we are talking about altcoin to bitcoin ratios. With that said, at a minimum I believe we are going to test the lows and probably even the bottom of the channel if I am right. Who knows we could potentially get the the low end of the box which is a strong historical support for the price.
Considering that a bitcoin terminal wave needs to fully retrace within the next month or so we will have our answer soon enough. So we here at LARP Capital propose the following question: What's it gonna be? Up or Down? You know where we stand : )
As always, good luck. Night night. Don't let the eth bugs bite.
The price action compared between the two coins over the last couple of weeks clearly suggest a vying for the top dog spot in the market. Bitcoin made a clear TA break down, and ETH quite stubbornly refused to follow. Imo this disagreement between the two simply can not coexist for long. If bitcoin is too remain king, as it obviously should (I find it wild that ethereum, considering it's fundamentals, has been able to peform as it has for this long, but I am certainly impressed by it) then it likely needs to take eth down with it. Bitcoin has a much more faithful community that has been through many crashes before only to become more convinced as to it's status as the worlds base money, eth would have a much tougher time as it's much more frothy of a market filled with momentum traders, dumb money, and those I spoke of earlier who simply have realized the world is transitioning to cryptocurrency--so they would rather propel a coin they can have more influence and control over into the spotlight over bitcoin which they missed out on as far as being a major whale.
Elliot Wave:
I believe we are in the conclusion of a big complex correction representing wave 4 of wave C. If Eth were to win the war (really a battle I suppose) than we could see ethereum overtake bitcoin in market cap. The price is at a decision point here. I'll spare you why I think this would be silly from a fundamental standpoint and stick to the technicals. To argue for the bullish picture, you would likely have to argue that all the price action I have deemed wave 4 would be the start of a new impulsive wave up, which it clearly is not showing any impulsive characteristics or signs of (feel free to show me why i'm wrong). The only other count in my mind would be to claim my wave x is actually a 5th wave failure to conclude wave C. Of the two scenarios mentioned above, this would make at least a bit more sense as the faily violent subsequent price action to the upside would be confirmative, but i'm sorry I just don't see it for a couple of reasons. For starters, if it was a 5th wave failure, wave x would be impulsive, which it is not. Further, if it was a 5th wave failure, what I have as wave a would actually be wave 1 of a new trend up, and thus impulsive, *which it is not*. Since it is corrective, this corroborated my count of a-b-c for wave y of a complex correction for wave 4 as wave b retraces >61% thus abc must be a flat correction *not a zig zag* thus a 3-3-5...so a would have to be corrective, or a '3'. Make sense?
Lastly, there is a 1.618 fib relationship between the price of wave 1 and wave 3, which is typically the case when wave 5 is going to extend. An extended 5th wave here would imply some real ominous price targets, even beyond what I have on the chart but the aggressive side of things can be harder to achieve when we are talking about altcoin to bitcoin ratios. With that said, at a minimum I believe we are going to test the lows and probably even the bottom of the channel if I am right. Who knows we could potentially get the the low end of the box which is a strong historical support for the price.
Considering that a bitcoin terminal wave needs to fully retrace within the next month or so we will have our answer soon enough. So we here at LARP Capital propose the following question: What's it gonna be? Up or Down? You know where we stand : )
As always, good luck. Night night. Don't let the eth bugs bite.
Comment:
ETH USD 6h:
ETH USD 1d:
Assuming this is correct (and if you have a valid bullish count that would make more sense I would love to hear it, but you will likely find that upon closer examination to detail they simply do not work) we should be going below $1300 within the next few months as crazy as that sounds. Stay safe out there
ETH USD 1d:
Assuming this is correct (and if you have a valid bullish count that would make more sense I would love to hear it, but you will likely find that upon closer examination to detail they simply do not work) we should be going below $1300 within the next few months as crazy as that sounds. Stay safe out there
Comment:
ETHUSD
6h:
s3.tradingview.com/s...shots/4/461pu6wm.png
-some would label black w as wave 3 of an even larger wave a (with red w,x, serving as 1 and 2)
(note how this would still keep the running triangle wave 3 at .382 of entire correction)
Further, note how with this count c concludes externally at the 1.618 extension which is typical. Either way implication is the same. And this all will get compacted soon enough, but great for learning and historical reference. (although not yet a tsn reference hehe)
1d:
ETHBTC
6h:
Similarly, while I have evolved my progress lables to show a triple zig zag (again no
change in the implications of it all as an extended 5th wave of a terminal) some would
argue the conclusion of the first correction of the same degree ends at 1 with the second
correction ending at 1.618. Ultimately I count it this way as the equality of both time
and price (not shown ~31% increases for a and c) is just screaming textbook abc zig zag for
wave z. The 0-b black dotted line has now officially broken.
I find immense beauty in waves : ) do you?
6h:
s3.tradingview.com/s...shots/4/461pu6wm.png
-some would label black w as wave 3 of an even larger wave a (with red w,x, serving as 1 and 2)
(note how this would still keep the running triangle wave 3 at .382 of entire correction)
Further, note how with this count c concludes externally at the 1.618 extension which is typical. Either way implication is the same. And this all will get compacted soon enough, but great for learning and historical reference. (although not yet a tsn reference hehe)
1d:
ETHBTC
6h:
change in the implications of it all as an extended 5th wave of a terminal) some would
argue the conclusion of the first correction of the same degree ends at 1 with the second
correction ending at 1.618. Ultimately I count it this way as the equality of both time
and price (not shown ~31% increases for a and c) is just screaming textbook abc zig zag for
wave z. The 0-b black dotted line has now officially broken.
I find immense beauty in waves : ) do you?
Comment:
There was an old lady who swallowed a doge, I DONT KNOW WHY why she swallowed a doge, at 70 cents who could know!
I asked her why: it's going my way and it'll go higher if u say any different i'll call u a liar!
There was an old lady who swallowed a litecoin, she swallowed the litecoin to save the doge, sure a hole i'm digging but deeper i'll go!
Most of these idiots dont even know--the doge is merge-mined soon the top will blow!
There was an old lady who swallowed a bcash, I don't know why she swallowed a bcash, if china ban mining it IT MEANS LESS HASH!
She swallowed the bcash to save the litecoin, she swallowed a litecoin to save the doge, I don't know why she swallowed the doge, WHO COULD KNOW?
There was an old lady who swallowed an ether, a fiat-billionaire told me to do it and I need a leader! She swallowed the ether to save the bcash, she swallowed the
bcash to save the litecoin, she swallowed the litecoin to save the doge, I dont know why she swallowed them all--with less hashpower there all destined to fall!
I don't know why she swallowed the ether, at $2700 it's surely a bleeder! Anyone even know how many there are? Just tried to sync a node, it work for u? Me neither!
I don't know why she swallowed the ether, I've no reason to lie, perhaps she'll die!
I asked her why: it's going my way and it'll go higher if u say any different i'll call u a liar!
There was an old lady who swallowed a litecoin, she swallowed the litecoin to save the doge, sure a hole i'm digging but deeper i'll go!
Most of these idiots dont even know--the doge is merge-mined soon the top will blow!
There was an old lady who swallowed a bcash, I don't know why she swallowed a bcash, if china ban mining it IT MEANS LESS HASH!
She swallowed the bcash to save the litecoin, she swallowed a litecoin to save the doge, I don't know why she swallowed the doge, WHO COULD KNOW?
There was an old lady who swallowed an ether, a fiat-billionaire told me to do it and I need a leader! She swallowed the ether to save the bcash, she swallowed the
bcash to save the litecoin, she swallowed the litecoin to save the doge, I dont know why she swallowed them all--with less hashpower there all destined to fall!
I don't know why she swallowed the ether, at $2700 it's surely a bleeder! Anyone even know how many there are? Just tried to sync a node, it work for u? Me neither!
I don't know why she swallowed the ether, I've no reason to lie, perhaps she'll die!
2h
1d
While the generally the retracement to follow a double zig zag is not usually a powerful one when the double zig zag represents the extended 5th wave of a terminal, like all terminals, it should be fully retraced.
Simple enough, eh? How some people could insist on callin this stuff luck or pure random walk 100% of the time is beyond me.
Most encounter elliot wave and come to one of two conclusions both of which are wrong:
-If elliot wave worked anyone could just use it and become a gazillionaire
-elliot wave doesn't work because the 'counts' are always changing.
Elliot wave IS AN EVOLVING PROCESS my G's and it takes ridiculously hard work. It usually begins with a vague, potential view of the future which gets meticulously fine tuned as more information is revealed which can, ultimately, provide you with stunning accuracy of events about to unfold. It is much harder to understand then any other form of TA because it essentially maps every type of market behavior possible into scrupoulous guidelines and descriptions. The more you study it the more you realize it's never wrong, only your application of it is lol. When that's the case you get back to the drawing board, work harder, and improve your understanding.