There’s GOOD NEWS and BAD NEWS. Let’s start with the bad ones first. Due to the DXY, ES and the low buying volume we saw at 26-31k, the local top is likely in. This means price will spend next months consolidating in this range between 28-29k (at most) all the way to 15.5k going back and forth without a definitive move in either sides. **This will liquidate a lot of leveraged positions and will make most investors lose their patience, so many will abandon the markets in Q3-Q4.**
***Here’s where the good news comes in. Less participants equals more opportunity. The leverage of gamblers will dry out a lot and the market (especially altcoins) may have their chance to finally bottom. Lots of opportunities will emerge.***
With Bitcoin in particular we are in an accumulation phase.** Between 15.5 to 22k it’s all a macro accumulation zone where the market maker is currently buying.** Therefore, we are going to get a chance to load up our bags at good levels for long term plays. Even if short term it will look like complete chaos, in retrospective these levels will be seen at fantastic buying opportunities.
**What’s the plan?** The storm is far from over. The SEC lawsuit with Binance only started the beginning of the move down, not the end of it. **There has to be extreme fear and anger in the market to mark a bottom. Something on similar magnitude to March 2020.**
So very likely there’s a Black Swan/ major event that will make the markets go down big time this year. I don’t know if it’s going to be another bank failure, beginning of a recession or something else. What’s clear is that if this event ever happens it will mark the bottom or at least be very close to it.
**The plan is to wait for now. Not take any irrational decision. Just observing how “bad” the situation can get before most people say it’s over and quit. That’s when I will buy in. With Bitcoin it will likely happen when it’s below 21-22k, while the DXY is above 110 and ES is crashing down to $3,800 or lower.**
**If you have any questions, research the answer first
***Here’s where the good news comes in. Less participants equals more opportunity. The leverage of gamblers will dry out a lot and the market (especially altcoins) may have their chance to finally bottom. Lots of opportunities will emerge.***
With Bitcoin in particular we are in an accumulation phase.** Between 15.5 to 22k it’s all a macro accumulation zone where the market maker is currently buying.** Therefore, we are going to get a chance to load up our bags at good levels for long term plays. Even if short term it will look like complete chaos, in retrospective these levels will be seen at fantastic buying opportunities.
**What’s the plan?** The storm is far from over. The SEC lawsuit with Binance only started the beginning of the move down, not the end of it. **There has to be extreme fear and anger in the market to mark a bottom. Something on similar magnitude to March 2020.**
So very likely there’s a Black Swan/ major event that will make the markets go down big time this year. I don’t know if it’s going to be another bank failure, beginning of a recession or something else. What’s clear is that if this event ever happens it will mark the bottom or at least be very close to it.
**The plan is to wait for now. Not take any irrational decision. Just observing how “bad” the situation can get before most people say it’s over and quit. That’s when I will buy in. With Bitcoin it will likely happen when it’s below 21-22k, while the DXY is above 110 and ES is crashing down to $3,800 or lower.**
**If you have any questions, research the answer first