Something different. No indicators. Just looking at price action on different time frames and looking for areas of previous activity.
There's a lot going on here at first glance but it's not that crazy when you dive in. I started by looking at the most recent price movement. Here is the 1 hour chart for eth starting in April. We get a 5 wave structure up with the horizontal lines showing the top and the bottom of our current channel. We're looking for a corrective wave two that doesn't retrace 1 by more than 100 percent. If it does we look for a different count.
So the current story becomes, is the 2 in? Here I have labeled a theory that says, yes, yes it is. Doesn't mean it's true.
Here's my thought process; the move down could be counted as a 12345 which would make it the A, then B bounces up to 550 or so, and then C corrects down below A meaning eth dips below 500 again. This would certainly still be a valid count but I started to look at areas with lots of price action recently and saw two channels. Our current channel in green and the previous channel in red. In blue are the time frames where the price shifted from one channel to the other. I suspect a third one to be coming soon. There's just so much price history in these areas that I think it's likely to return there. There are psychological and mathematical reasons for this but that discussion is for another time but I'll summarize by stating a true trope: Markets have memories.
Is it possible that we break bearish out of the current channel? Most definitely. And it very well may. There are some funky waves to interpret and I'm sure different Elliott traders will see things differently.
I'm looking from different perspectives to try to carve out the narrative.
There's a lot going on here at first glance but it's not that crazy when you dive in. I started by looking at the most recent price movement. Here is the 1 hour chart for eth starting in April. We get a 5 wave structure up with the horizontal lines showing the top and the bottom of our current channel. We're looking for a corrective wave two that doesn't retrace 1 by more than 100 percent. If it does we look for a different count.
So the current story becomes, is the 2 in? Here I have labeled a theory that says, yes, yes it is. Doesn't mean it's true.
Here's my thought process; the move down could be counted as a 12345 which would make it the A, then B bounces up to 550 or so, and then C corrects down below A meaning eth dips below 500 again. This would certainly still be a valid count but I started to look at areas with lots of price action recently and saw two channels. Our current channel in green and the previous channel in red. In blue are the time frames where the price shifted from one channel to the other. I suspect a third one to be coming soon. There's just so much price history in these areas that I think it's likely to return there. There are psychological and mathematical reasons for this but that discussion is for another time but I'll summarize by stating a true trope: Markets have memories.
Is it possible that we break bearish out of the current channel? Most definitely. And it very well may. There are some funky waves to interpret and I'm sure different Elliott traders will see things differently.
I'm looking from different perspectives to try to carve out the narrative.