crimsonronin
Short

ETH looks in terrible shape

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
After a mega run up over the new year, ETH has fallen on some hard times.

Right now, ETH is below the daily 20EMA and 50MA; typically this means a move to the 200MA is the next likely target. There are other bearish patterns in the mix as well including a large bear pennant and small bear flag .

The first target for ETH will be ~$600. We should see a large bounce, like it's prior low at the start of Feb. If this fails to hold a target of around $300 is in play, but lets cross that bridge if we get to it.
Comment: We've been basically sideways for a couple of days and we are starting to see some sell off due to a pull back in BTC.

We are kind of in no-mans-land at the moment but I'm hoping over the next day or so we get a more decisive move:

Comment: We certainly got our decisive move:



Right on track....
Comment: Another day of selling
Comment: We have gone as low as $640, formed a daily hammer but failed to reverse. We are currently trading at $668, but looking at the TD indicator we have at least 2 more days of downside to come. I believe we have almost exhausted the 78.6 support and we will head to the 200MA (~$600) by tomorrow or Monday (EST).



As I mentioned in the original post, I believe we should see a bounce at the 200MA, but I'm not confident it will be a reversal.
Comment: We have hit our first target of the 200MA. Due to how quickly this final level was run, this may not hold for very long. I'll have an update in a few hours once a bit more price data comes in.

Trade closed: target reached: I'm going to close out this idea since it hit the original 200MA target of ~$600.

I believe it is going to continue down further because we haven't seen the sizeable bounce we needed, but I will create a new idea to explore it further.

In the meantime, here is the chart as it stands now: a bear pennant with a target of around $480-$520. There's some confluence with the bear flag and pennant which just strengthens the case.

Comment: Our bear pennant turned into a bear flag:


Watch for a break down below $580 for confirmation and above $630 for invalidation.

We are just holding onto the daily 200MA, and as I've said before, in a down trend, the longer we stay on support, the more likely we are to break it.



I say we are still on track to break this over the next 24hrs
Comment: As I said above, a break would happen in 24hrs, and it certainly did:



And now we are trading below the 1D 200MA.



I think the likely targets are:
1. $450-$480
2. $300

Obviously it won't go there in a straight line, but over the next few weeks I expect the 2nd target to hit unless something miraculous happens.
Awesome post! Looks right on the money too, great analysis!
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