botje11

ETH in Danger Zone, H&S and Triangle, Part 7

BITMEX:ETHUSD   ETHUSD Perpetual Futures Contract
ETH' just made a small drop and pump half hour ago. On the left we can see the daily volume increasing again compared to previous days, but what this candle does not show, is that so far half of that candle is buying volume . Which is not normal for a bearish version. We broke the neckline a week ago with some volume increase, but the increase actually happened with the second candle and not during the break of the neckline. That is not very odd but also not normal. With the move we did half hour ago, volume drop and just as much volume up again as well, also makes me think something else might be going on.

It's all still a lot of guessing, but only thing i can say is, that if we move sideways for a few more days, making small and slow drops (like the blue line), but staying above the 100ish AND keep testing that resistance line, we could see a counter move happen instead of a big drop . So i't important we see a few tests of that resistance line, otherwise this theory is not valid and the most likely direction will be down.



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Comment: New ETH analysis:

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@botje11 hi there , any update on your opinion for ETH thank you!
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WHICH WAY IS SHE BREAKIN???
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We're looking for a drop as well. In the short trade right now up 1.01%!
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nice lines. how do i shut this off?
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Thanks for your view on ETH. Can you explain why do you think that move up is not possible without retesting 100ish support line multiple times?
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botje11 AjnoudaSikret
@AjnoudaSikret, lol :), now you are really asking me a (complicated) question. I use a simple rule, when a market SHOULD drop but doesn't 'want' to, it usually shows it wants to go the other way and vice versa. In other words, when for example, a neckline of an H&S breaks, we see a few small pushes up/down from the neckline but see continues retests of the neckline and fails to make new highs/lows, it usually fails and goes the other way. So here, we should see a drop coming soon, getting further away from the neckline. But if that doesn't happen and we stay in this zone, it becomes more likely that it doesn't want to drop and eventually will go the other way.
+1 Reply
@botje11, Got it. :) Thanks for taking your time. Since you are a "fractal" guy, I wanna show you something I found on LTC. Check if you want...
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Eth is going to $50. and BTC is going to low 2k
+4 Reply
cosmopan lamboluvr
@lamboluvr, No way BTC will be drop below the 200EMA. Historically it never happened. $3150 for BTC and $85 in December 2018 for ETH was an absolute bottom.
When ETH will hit $125 like @botje11 shows it will be a capitulation for bears. Then I expecting a boring consolidation 4-5 months where the crypto-cynics like you will realize that BTC will never drop below $3000 and switch from bears to bulls. It will look like a small bull rally on the chart and another good sign before the long bull run.
+4 Reply
lamboluvr cosmopan
@cosmopan, The weekly 200 MA is not far below the current price. However, if BTC can hold these levels now it may be confirmation that the bottom is in. Again though the bottom is rougly 30% lower from the levels BTC is now around the 2300 to 2400 area. Check out the following post on TradingView "Most Likely Bottom For Bitcoin in Low 2000's, Here's Why! (BTC)" This person goes and explains the TA behind why he thinks 2k is not far away.
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