ETH-USD Review of Past Year's Price Deviation from 200 SMA
Having done this analysis for BTC (see linked idea) we noticed that the BTC crash was consistently occurring when the daily chart deviated from the 200 SMA by about 60%. This was true of the current crash for BTC. We also noticed that the recovery level was fairly consistent (between 23% and 34%) from the 200 SMA. Let's see if we see a similar consistency with the movement of ETH....
With ETH the correction was triggered when the deviation was between 60% and 83% - a wider range than found for BTC. There was also a wider range for the recovery level of between 10% and 45%. This makes it more difficult to predict when the next major turn will occur in the ETH market.
Lessons
- We should be vigilant as to whether the current mid Jan correction has completed since we are still 45% above the 200 SMA. Previous crashes corrected to 10%, 33% and 25%.
- Keep an eye in future on when the price of ETH deviates from the 200 SMA by more than 60%. Ensure you are not in significant long positions when it deviates this amount.
With ETH the correction was triggered when the deviation was between 60% and 83% - a wider range than found for BTC. There was also a wider range for the recovery level of between 10% and 45%. This makes it more difficult to predict when the next major turn will occur in the ETH market.
Lessons
- We should be vigilant as to whether the current mid Jan correction has completed since we are still 45% above the 200 SMA. Previous crashes corrected to 10%, 33% and 25%.
- Keep an eye in future on when the price of ETH deviates from the 200 SMA by more than 60%. Ensure you are not in significant long positions when it deviates this amount.
