ETH Daily "Return To Mean" / Consolidation ?

I was looking at the daily chart for ETH all the way back into April-ish. I Have the 5MA and the 10MA on the chart, you can see back in early may ETH experienced a golden cross event when the 5MA crossed up over the 10MA on May 7th. ETH then went on to go on a solid bull run from $88-ish to $400. Granted, a lot of this volume was fueled by pure euphoria, some FOMO and a lot of media craze causing massive pumping in BTC, ETH and crypto in general for that matter. However, the key tell to take away from this is the fact that ETH indeed did go bullish after this event.

We then saw a Death Cross when the 10MA crossed back over the 5MA on June 17th, a bearish sign and we sold off from 375 down to 205-210 before hitting solid support and making a double bottom on the 50MA ($205 area).

Fast forward to today and see how the 5MA is slowly creeping up, looking like we can see another golden cross here, 5AM->10MA on the daily chart. This has not happened since May 7th, and it happened again prior to that on April 6th (eth went on a run then also). If we see a golden cross on the daily with VOLUME and sustained buying around those levels it would lead me to believe ETH could be poised for another leg up.




Hypothesis: ETH will continue to consolidate in the 250-275 range until finally picking up some momentum and making it's next leg up. ALTHOUGH.... If we see some big selling come in and we lose the 50MA support My sentiment will change to bearish for the longer term.

Comment:

Just to add, I feel like the rise from 240-415 in a about a week was massively overbought and fueled by tons of hype and media press about BTC, ETH & Crypto in general. Those levels were unsustainable without tons of huge buyers, I believe it was either some big institutional money coming in and then the drop thereafter from 415 to 220 was the bigger money exiting their positions for a gain coupled with weak hands selling in fear as the price dropped.

We saw solid support on the 50MA which kept me bullish long term, as corrections and consolidations down to the 50MA are normal in bull cycles. This was the 'return to the mean' or prior price action I consider normal (or more normal) then the drastic rise we saw in early June.

We could consolidate here sideways for a bit as buyers start to regain confidence in the price after last weeks correction, if we start to see the confidence move up I could see ETH poised for a move up within the coming month

Comment:

I think we will re-test the 50MA , $230-245 before a more gradual rise up. keep an eye on the MA

Comment:

ETH close to golden cross on the 4HR chart, daily still a bit out but we saw support around the 50 MA again . Next few days mission critical