Crazy climbing ETH is getting ready next move up!
Hi guys!
Welcome to a brand new and exciting ETH analysis!
Last time, we made some amazing profits and got some pretty good insight into the price action happening in those crazy moves upwards yesterday as it climbed 13%. I hope you can join me in this adventure of charting once again and look towards the $184 target for January.
Have a look at this sprawl of lines over this price chart. Pretty simple. Pretty effective. That green trendline is what makes me think we'll see some more support coming upwards in the coming days as that's been pretty instrumental in the beginning of the last big move up.
The interesting thing about the most recent moves is the consistent bear traps before pumping, which I have highlighted in blue here. Looks like we would have made a big old bull flag at the top of the last big move where I posted the last chart of my previous analysis, if it wasn't for that double top pushing us down. The target of that double top was hit pretty normally, and of course a rally is natural after all that pumping from one day. I believe this is a very healthy correction and we could continue upwards after a bit of sideways movement. The blue area could be a fractal of those bear traps within a bigger bull flag once again.
That brings us to the red and green line, which shows the support and resistance from the double top, which will hopefully give way to a double bottom in the near future. My prediction is we'll go sideways within that range, possibly with some bull and bear traps, until the green and subsiquently purple resistance-turned-support trendlines reach the price and start acting as resistance levels.
You can see a possible EW count on the chart, which looks pretty good to me because there's clearly 5 subwaves within each wave and we can easily imagine wave E taking us somewhere, but who knows how high at this point? Don't worry though, that's why I'm here to guide you as we start to see some big movements in either direction.
The orange line at the bottom is the biggy to watch out for in the long run, where we had our double bottom from the first analysis. I'm going to keep it here for now as an important reference point. We'll also be keeping an eye out on Bitcoin to try to study the effects that might have and predict using that chart, so please have a look over there as well since I'll be updating both pretty frequently.
Thanks for reading! Don't forget to leave a like and don't be shy to comment what you think belo :)
-Etch
Previous analysis:
Welcome to a brand new and exciting ETH analysis!
Last time, we made some amazing profits and got some pretty good insight into the price action happening in those crazy moves upwards yesterday as it climbed 13%. I hope you can join me in this adventure of charting once again and look towards the $184 target for January.
Have a look at this sprawl of lines over this price chart. Pretty simple. Pretty effective. That green trendline is what makes me think we'll see some more support coming upwards in the coming days as that's been pretty instrumental in the beginning of the last big move up.
The interesting thing about the most recent moves is the consistent bear traps before pumping, which I have highlighted in blue here. Looks like we would have made a big old bull flag at the top of the last big move where I posted the last chart of my previous analysis, if it wasn't for that double top pushing us down. The target of that double top was hit pretty normally, and of course a rally is natural after all that pumping from one day. I believe this is a very healthy correction and we could continue upwards after a bit of sideways movement. The blue area could be a fractal of those bear traps within a bigger bull flag once again.
That brings us to the red and green line, which shows the support and resistance from the double top, which will hopefully give way to a double bottom in the near future. My prediction is we'll go sideways within that range, possibly with some bull and bear traps, until the green and subsiquently purple resistance-turned-support trendlines reach the price and start acting as resistance levels.
You can see a possible EW count on the chart, which looks pretty good to me because there's clearly 5 subwaves within each wave and we can easily imagine wave E taking us somewhere, but who knows how high at this point? Don't worry though, that's why I'm here to guide you as we start to see some big movements in either direction.
The orange line at the bottom is the biggy to watch out for in the long run, where we had our double bottom from the first analysis. I'm going to keep it here for now as an important reference point. We'll also be keeping an eye out on Bitcoin to try to study the effects that might have and predict using that chart, so please have a look over there as well since I'll be updating both pretty frequently.
Thanks for reading! Don't forget to leave a like and don't be shy to comment what you think belo :)
-Etch
Previous analysis:
Comment:
One thing I forgot to mention from the fractal in the previous analysis. After the five weekly red candles in a row, we got candles in the opposite direction in the order of red, green, red, red. So maybe this time the weeks will be green, red, green, green :) Just one possibility, if this first idea holds any ground at all. I never hear anyone talking about reverse fractals, but I really don't see how after 5 red weeks we can't have some kind of pullback.We'll keep watching to see if we get a bounce on that weekly RSI as well.
Comment:
This analysis is looking like a success already. The EW count was not completely PERFECT because the D wave didn't go down as much as I thought and had actually already started.But come on guys, it's pretty good if I do say so myself. Don't forget to leave a like for this since I didn't see any other trader calling this EW movement ;)
Obviously, the blue bear trap region did play out again AND the big news is we broke resistance and even made a higher high. Maybe we'll see another bear trap move, maybe not. However, we are seeing now some regular bearish divergence on both the RSI and the MACD which could say we get an ABC retracement. On the other hand, the MACD is making a bullish cross which says we will likely get a move up again after a potential retracement. We could just keep moving up from here without pulling back, but I think it would be wise for bulls to take a breather first.
Obviously, the blue bear trap region did play out again AND the big news is we broke resistance and even made a higher high. Maybe we'll see another bear trap move, maybe not. However, we are seeing now some regular bearish divergence on both the RSI and the MACD which could say we get an ABC retracement. On the other hand, the MACD is making a bullish cross which says we will likely get a move up again after a potential retracement. We could just keep moving up from here without pulling back, but I think it would be wise for bulls to take a breather first.
Comment:
Alright guys, here's the game.
ETH remains bullish as long as it stays within or above this channel. This tool, if you didn't know, is a fib channel*. We could see an ABC retracement within this channel as the fibonacci levels have acted as support and resistance a few times on the chart, especially the 50%. This may create a small bullish wedge that later either continues in the channel or breaks out (either way it's going up). We'll call this chart "Bullish Scenario A"
*The fib channel marks fibonacci levels in a parallel channel to factor in common retracement levels to a move where the price trades within a channel. It is one of my favourite tools and I think it's underused. You can see another example of another interesting fib tool in my bitcoin analysis which is linked below.
ETH remains bullish as long as it stays within or above this channel. This tool, if you didn't know, is a fib channel*. We could see an ABC retracement within this channel as the fibonacci levels have acted as support and resistance a few times on the chart, especially the 50%. This may create a small bullish wedge that later either continues in the channel or breaks out (either way it's going up). We'll call this chart "Bullish Scenario A"
*The fib channel marks fibonacci levels in a parallel channel to factor in common retracement levels to a move where the price trades within a channel. It is one of my favourite tools and I think it's underused. You can see another example of another interesting fib tool in my bitcoin analysis which is linked below.
Comment:
Bullish scenaro 2:
We make an upside down Bart Simpson or cup-and-handle pattern that will break out of the channel, and the top (100% level) becomes resistance
We make an upside down Bart Simpson or cup-and-handle pattern that will break out of the channel, and the top (100% level) becomes resistance
Comment:
Bullish scenario 3:
We get another one of those moves that doesn't really look like anything, but it's actually another big bull flag or triangle with a blue bear trap region like I mentioned earlier. This would also follow BTC.
Price could drop just below the flag, or even below the channel and back in again. I think the B variant would definitely be the most bullish because it would really show aggressive buying from the bulls and that they are not giving up just yet!
We get another one of those moves that doesn't really look like anything, but it's actually another big bull flag or triangle with a blue bear trap region like I mentioned earlier. This would also follow BTC.
Price could drop just below the flag, or even below the channel and back in again. I think the B variant would definitely be the most bullish because it would really show aggressive buying from the bulls and that they are not giving up just yet!
Comment:
This brings us to...
Bearish scenario 1!
The bulls just simply stop buying, we break and sustain below the 10 EMA and all momentum we had is lost. The price simply makes a lower high, goes sideways then make a bear flag drop out of the bullish channel and drops back down to red support.
Bearish scenario 1!
The bulls just simply stop buying, we break and sustain below the 10 EMA and all momentum we had is lost. The price simply makes a lower high, goes sideways then make a bear flag drop out of the bullish channel and drops back down to red support.
Comment:
Bearish scenario 3:
Head and shoulders at $104. This is the scariest one for the bulls as it indicates trend reversal. But a good trader must take all possibilities into account!
Target would be about at the green or even the red line and possibly that purple trendline could come into play too. Watch out for a bounce at $104 as this could make it a real possibility! For now, just speculation.
Head and shoulders at $104. This is the scariest one for the bulls as it indicates trend reversal. But a good trader must take all possibilities into account!
Target would be about at the green or even the red line and possibly that purple trendline could come into play too. Watch out for a bounce at $104 as this could make it a real possibility! For now, just speculation.
Trade closed: target reached:
Sorry, previous one was Bear scenario 2!
THIS is the REAL Bear Scenario 3 lol
That is that we just make a bigger ABC correction down and even below support. That's it. It would be very underwhelming and I do not see this happening given the strength of the bulls recently. But it does fit with the bearish divergence we are seeing. It would mean the whole thing was just a big dead cat bounce and that would really suck as it could even invalidate my longer term prediction for $184 ETH In January, and indicate dumping even lower. For this to happen, we would need to see a big drop in the next couple of days.
So that's it guys! Hope you enjoyed this analysis for basically the next 24 hours! I will make a new analysis based on whichever scenario plays out! Which one do you think will happen? Or something completely different? Let me know in the comments and please follow me here if you appreciate this.
Personally, I think it will be Bullish Scenario 1 as it fits with the bearish divergence, and still sees the same kind of strength from the bulls. But it could also easily be Bull scenario 3 or Bearish scenario 3 with the H&S in my mind.
See you tomorrow!
(*Also marking this trade as target reached because it did, pretty well. And I'll aim to make another analysis instead of updating this one for the people that don't really read the updates. I know a lot of people see my charts but only a small percentage follows or likes which means they do not get updated. If I start to get more followers then I will possibly change the way I do this ;))
THIS is the REAL Bear Scenario 3 lol
That is that we just make a bigger ABC correction down and even below support. That's it. It would be very underwhelming and I do not see this happening given the strength of the bulls recently. But it does fit with the bearish divergence we are seeing. It would mean the whole thing was just a big dead cat bounce and that would really suck as it could even invalidate my longer term prediction for $184 ETH In January, and indicate dumping even lower. For this to happen, we would need to see a big drop in the next couple of days.
So that's it guys! Hope you enjoyed this analysis for basically the next 24 hours! I will make a new analysis based on whichever scenario plays out! Which one do you think will happen? Or something completely different? Let me know in the comments and please follow me here if you appreciate this.
Personally, I think it will be Bullish Scenario 1 as it fits with the bearish divergence, and still sees the same kind of strength from the bulls. But it could also easily be Bull scenario 3 or Bearish scenario 3 with the H&S in my mind.
See you tomorrow!
(*Also marking this trade as target reached because it did, pretty well. And I'll aim to make another analysis instead of updating this one for the people that don't really read the updates. I know a lot of people see my charts but only a small percentage follows or likes which means they do not get updated. If I start to get more followers then I will possibly change the way I do this ;))
