Elliot wave would suggest that 5 waves are completed off bottom with classic impulsive structure. The blue box is suggestive of the correction target range from which a new 5 wave structure to the low 30's should commence. This box is determined by the fibs of the 5 wave and confluence a=c, plus the beggining structure of C wave that seems to have commenced. I paired back at 14 and have several orders firing in this box.
Elliot wave only works after the fact. We know there will be a bigger correction, but we don't know from where it will start. If ETH makes new highs and go to 0.04 and then corrects back to 0.02 you will simply chnage your chart and state that the 5th wave wasn't done. Very unreliable methodology IMO.
rwilday hubavka
Actually I wholeheartedly disagree with you. I trade EW profitably regularly. And when I started learning how to do it better, my profitability climbed immensely. But it is true that there are several scenarios EW can predicdt, and the one you list is a possibility but unlikely since it has dropped below the 4 of 3. But depending on what it does new scenarios unfold. So, with EW you have to be on your toes still.
Petros hubavka
I also disagree. EW can be a very usefull, real-time map if you know how to read it as the price action unfolds. That said here we have a scenario, where circled 5 is only wave 3, and sugested ABC correction is wave 4 of the same degree as wave 3, thus we can expect wave 5 after wave 4.
Yes, that's my first alternative I was tracking except there's an issue with the fibs if we do not hold here. And, it was actually my primary until the size of what I call A came in. And, the 5th wrapped up at the 2.0 extension, off 2 which is perfect! And, we do not have a completed C wave (just 3 waves) and if we go lower we have reached the next degree count. It must hold here to for your count in my fib rules to qualify as only a 4. which are in addition to Elliot's count rules . I can count 5 waves in circle 5 but you're right they visually are stronger as 3. It is also truncated in my fib rules. But part of this is that micro counting is suspect. Anyway, all that mouthful to say, that's an alternative I have but not primary.
Petros rwilday
I don't know the method of counting EW by Fib extensions, but EW seems to me to be too dynamic thing to assess it by Fib's. Also assesing EW by it's size seems to be pointless, as the waves can be severly stretched or compressed by both time and distance. Nevertheless, a dog is still a dog regardless of how long or short legs it has:) Let's hope the same is true for our wave 4 or as you named it - ABC:)
Petros Petros
Also we might consider that for now we are still in wave A of 4 and wave 4 will be a kind of larger correction...
Ah....it works really well for me, and helps me build pretty darn accurate forecasts. I have a mentor who has taught it. So, we have fib rules on top of Elliot's wave counting rules. It's amazing what it does. Imagine knowing where a stock goes before earnings...I'm getting wealthy slowly but surely. Still have to have alternatives. So, one of those rules (not a fib rule) is that 4 must stay above 4 of wave 3 or risk becoming the wave 2 retrace. We have that in this chart now. So, my primary view remains that we are in the next larger 2. And, based on fib rules, there is confluence between .618 of the 5 waves and the extension structure of C. When there is confluence discovered an important target emerges. I believe this will stick save right at .016. Let's see what happens. Targets do get invalidated. But it is crazy how often they stick.
Petros rwilday
Very interesting view on the Fibs + EW. I have to discover more about that. My count is based on a dynamic assessment wich is Awsome Oscillator. I find the peak of the osscillator and this marks wave 3 of some degree. With some other rules in mind I can count EW in real time. Where can I find more about your method?
Yes, you're A wave is possible. And, if that happens, it will be a running flat correction. The way I judge that is technicals. The b wave up should have weak techncials with little price bar engulfing, while a 3rd wave should move quick, breakout clearly, and have strong technicals. B waves are messes.
Petros rwilday
I thought thab weknow if correction is flat only after wave B peaks, wave B always mean vacations:), wave C is tradable though.
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