IvanLabrie

Ethereum: Ready for a rally?

KRAKEN:ETHXBT   ETHXBT
Price action suggests ETHXBT             might have what it takes to take off, or to be a massive failure and a short!
It needs to hit 0.0037 tomorrow to validate this emerging rally out of a very strong base, volume wise.
If it manages to do it, and stay above 0.0026, then it might be the start of a large uptrend. If not, it was a local             pump and it should be shorted.
Resistance levels on chart, trade wisely around them.
There are two time at mode trend signals which have been exceeded, target wise, which means that this rally is completely over the top. In cryptoland, this usually leads to no follow through and the coin's price goes back down, but stay vigilant, price action applies the same way to it, specially if there is higher liquidity flowing into the asset, like we have now.
Anyone knows what the fundamentals are for such a take off?

Feel free to comment, I'll update it as we go.
Comment: If today closes as a hanging man and it doesn't reach the 0.0037 mark...short!
Comment: Target hit on time...margin of error, looks like we have a rally coming.
Trade active:
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Market buy now, place pending buy below 0.00303, stop at 0.00273. Target 0.00333 for a partial tp, and aim higher for the rest. You can also buy the other value on chart, 0.00288.
Comment: Holding near resistance, looks rather strong. A break and close above it would be terrific for bulls.
Comment: Market buy was the smart move. Let's see the close...
Comment:
snapshot
Comment: Might be a failure on the long side:

snapshot
Trade active:
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I'd buy here, stop at 0.00293, and aim for the white box target.
Trade closed: stop reached
Comment: Levels worked well. ETH buyers didn't have what it was required to break resistance.
Hi Ivan. There are no fundamentals that I know of moving this. I assume it started with shorts closing, and then it got fuel from FOMO newbies. Ethereum is full of them!
Speaking of fundamentals, they are really not in favour of a rally yet, given that two of the largest known holders, the Ethereum Foundation and Augur are going to be forced to sell in high amounts in the mid and short term. Moreover, some insiders have been suggesting the Foundation might be running into legal issues with the US government due to the structure of the presale. While I still take this with a grain of salt, it is still a good reason to keep a vigilant skepticism on sudden price moves. Personally I think the recent bottom will be tested, at least, a test it is likely to fail.
+2 Reply
let's see if we hit the price target in time. if we don't we could consider selling back down towards 0.0026-.
+1 Reply
Esper babadook
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/10/28/bitbeat-microsoft-to-offer-ethereum-based-services-on-azure/
+1 Reply
Thanks a lot, this explains the bullish developments here.
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I need to learn fundamentals from you, Baba
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really nice! merci Ivan.
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Different ways to kill a cat ;) This is how I see things: (1) Up Trend Line, though not drawn(visible to the eye), has been broken to the North. (2) If this is to be a down trend reversal to the north, then, this initial rally would cut at a point(Normally, a testing of some moving average), and then falls back to test where the last last low was. "V"shaped trend reversals are rare, otherwise, price would enter into some sort of Trading Range prior to the massive take of, IF tis a trend reversal. Lest, the downtrend would continue, as the odds favours it than reversal( Reason=prevailing trend is down.) Most often than not, Trading Ranges tend to be neutral, and can favour UP or DOWN move. Despite that, there are some techniques one could use to decipher buying/selling pressure, in order to predict/forecast the probable direction in which price is likely to breakout from the TR.
+1 Reply
moorekapital moorekapital
I may no know the ECONOMICS of some instruments, even if I know, I struggle to make sense out of it, but I have a particular MARKET STRUCTURE, and set of price patterns I look out for each and every time. DO THEY WORK...? YES! Will they work for you.....? I'm not sure if you'll use them the way I do.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO moorekapital
The volume/liquidity is vital too...these instruments tend to have periods of super low liquidity where they simply drift sideways down, and price action becomes useless.
Keep that in mind.
+2 Reply
moorekapital IvanLabrie
I get that. But I think VOLUME/LIQUIDITY are evidenced in the price action. It(price) would tell you if V/L is dry.
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IvanLabrie PRO moorekapital
Yeah, but the time spent in the no volume bars is a distortion...you'd be forced to look at higher timeframes.
+2 Reply
moorekapital IvanLabrie
I think much of trading success has got to do with knowing when to pull the trigger versus when to lay low. TRADING LIKE A SNIPER. ;) It's either what you're looking for is there, or not = No need to force things, where's other markets show clarity.
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moorekapital moorekapital
PRICE ACTION( Everything, including price bars behaviour (individually and collectively) has kept me out of taking certain trades, and I look back often times and got very satisfied for not taking those trades. I think it's a matter of PROFICIENCY ;)
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO moorekapital
And experience ;)
Nice going lately.
+1 Reply
moorekapital IvanLabrie
I picked/and continue to pick loads of skills/lessons from you, Coach.
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we going to 1500$ read this graph http://cut.by/hK9P1
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[CHART] ETHXBT SUPER SIMPLIFIED MINOR & INTERMEDIATE TREND LINES
+2 Reply
Good summary of the price action. We need to break that red resistance fast.
+2 Reply
yen21 MakisMooz
Thank's for noobs
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Excuse noobish question but is XBT the same as BTC ?
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IvanLabrie PRO afbitcoins
Yes, it's Kraken's nomenclature...go figure.
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Either going to rally? sitting at 97 cents atm.
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See update, if-then-else.
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Galvin IvanLabrie
Wheres the update? Looked at the top didn't see anything new
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Galvin Galvin
I almost went long on this, but because tether took so long I didn't. Good thing I guess.
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Yes, below 0.00293 we'd have bearish continuation.
Knowing these levels well, you can place an opposite order there and recover your loss from getting stopped.
I do it often.
Now we need to wait for more information, but price is holding above the highest volume node overall, so uptrend is still possible.
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