I added the weekly profile chart to illustrate the fair value areas, as well as the instante rejection/low time spent at price , where larger players liquidated (and bought in).
If ETHXBT gives us a signal and we observe higher , we can start to predict direction, for now, it remains ranging around the mode.
So, buy low, sell high applies.
I dont know if there's be something serious in ETH rise before hit extremally hard bottom like 0.002 or even 0.001 or below.
Remeber ico price...
Anyway, I think about DASH last weeks, maybe its time to do some serious bull run.
I hope you are researching sometimes also another than ETH altcoins.
I'll have to buy more to stay at 30% of the btc risked.
It's a problem if you trade short term.
Not a problem to hold an unrealized loss, when the prospect is of a big pump in the future.
All the lower entries compensate for the ones that were in the red for a while.
And you only risked price going to 0 with a rational BTC amount.
In ETH case, dumps can active ICO holders to sell, because price is still extremally profitable for them.
Even if few % of ICO buyers considering sell, it is huge supply for ETH makret, and demand is not rising too much at poloniex.
For now this is win-win game only for: a) ICO buyers b) short term traders who traded both (long/short) ways c) short/mid traders with shorts
Time to hold some bags then. ;)
What's the point here?
Have you seen my publications other than this ETH one?
If ETH goes to 0, I'm prepared to take that hit...if it doesn't I'll continue to apply the same methodology until it rallies (or something drastically changes, forcing me to change my mind).
In a trading range, I use CCI with 11 periods and bollinger bands with 21 periods and 2 standard deviations to trade back to the mode or most frequent price.
Give it a go, maybe you find it useful.
Only problem I see is the low volume. Makes it very hard to get accurate forecasts.