IvanLabrie

BTCUSD: Update and forecast/guidelines

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
a year ago
On chart we have conflicting signals. It seems that the bears decided to book profits and this ignited a short squeeze rally, or at least that is what logic implies.

Considering multiple variables, we can determine with a high degree of certainty that Bitcoin is set to rally off this juncture, as long as it remains above 228.04. We can expect realistically to retest the 66 period daily EMA, but the time at mode target aims higher, to the 268.64 mark.

Keep in mind we still have a valid downtrend signal, that despite having reached its target, has time left to expire.
Time at mode signal expirations usually show reactions, which normally form strong moves against the signal's direction.
These can have lasting effects, or merely be pullbacks, but I've witnessed many occasions where this is true. I'd rate it very highly in probabilistic terms, based on my almost 2 years of experience since I've learned this method.
This is of particular significance when there are fundamental events nearing the expiration dates. I wouldn't bother with fundamentals, regarding Bitcoin in general, since it obeys the time at mode signals so well, but September is a huge month for many reasons, and one of them is the possibility of a rate hike for the dollar next week.

I'm holding both BTC and ETH, on a 70/30% basis, but I'll try to convert most of the BTC to Euros this week as protection for the conflicting signal enviroment. If you're a BTC holder, consider exchanging some of your BTC (or dollars!) to either Yen or Euros (maybe 50/50). It's possible that we see a sharp move, and volatility might make us incurr in losses if we are negligent with our assets.
My expectations are of a rising Euro             after declining to 1.10+-50 pips, a rising Yen while the stock market collapses this month, which would be accelerated by the Fed's rate hike or even if they don't hike rates!
See my charts on related ideas for more information on this macro picture.

Going back to Bitcoin , in the boon of the Bitcoin XT/fork-no fork situation, it's highly likely to see volatility come back, 2011 style, so, brace yourselves, it's going to be a shakey ride!

Have a nice weekend, but most of all good luck!

Ivan.
a year ago
Trade closed: stop reached
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I had a short trade idea here, but I'd wait if shorting. I will be converting BTC to Euros though, and keep them in a different trading platform (with Euro as base currency).
If trading BTCUSD; you could enter more confidently once we've reached higher targets, like the 66 EMA, which is highly probable to be hit before falling again, or maybe higher.
Keep close watch of the uptrend and downtrend signals time expiration.
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Nice range expansion in today's daily bar. This is headed up.
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Tim West (my mentor) posted an interesting BTCUSD chart, might be worth holding on to some of our BTC it would seem.
Do check it out:
Bitcoin BTCUSD Bitstamp - Monthly Downtrend Time expired
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yen21
a year ago
Thanks for sharing but i'm still holding. Do you think i should sell some? I bought at 169
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IvanLabrie TOP yen21
a year ago
BTC? Hold for sure, if we reach 268 or even 432 like Tim suggests, you'll be very happy.
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This is a confusing signal, daily shows the downtrend expired, but the new uptrend is also about to expire, with the target not hit.
We might retest the mode at 228.04 this coming week.
As Tim West suggests, it's possible that higher timeframes take control and we see a rally of monthly scale. well into the 400s.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
a year ago
We did retest the mode, it can still go up if it fires a new range expansion bar up, and/or a daily bar closes with the low higher than the mode.
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Nice moves today. Might be a good long if above, stop under the low.
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IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
a year ago
above the mode*
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Still sideways, once it takes off it might be a large move.
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