IvanLabrie
Long

Ethereum: Bitcoin crash, fundamental catalysts and time at mode

KRAKEN:ETHXBT   ETHXBT
a year ago
We finally have a new mode in ETHXBT             .
The last 4h bar has 2 hours to go, but is already over the mode. If it closes there it'll confirm an uptrend signal.
Add to this the fundamental catalyst of BTCUSD             crashing because of the Bitcoin XT             fork , problems regarding consensus between Bitcoin developers, an alleged post by Satoshi Nakamoto himself complaning about it and we have the perfect storm...

  • Rgmov is signaling an emerging uptrend
  • CCI moved past +100
  • Proportionality is fine for a trending impulse
  • Confirming time at mode uptrend on close
  • Lowest high trendline holding
  • Rising volume with rising prices
  • Fundamental catalyst for a paradigm shift

I bought more here, I was going to short BItcoin but I went long ETH instead.
Time is at the minimum required for a wave 3 advance to maintain proportionality.
Grab your popcorn and soda,

Good luck to us all,

Ivan.
a year ago
Trade closed: stop reached
If you're interested in joining my trading newsletter or private lessons, message me. I trade Forex, Equities and Commodities. Contact: skype @ ivanlabrie, PM here or QQ (2954487803).
i think we may go past the 1.618 line due to this "terrible" btc news, well see tho, either way I just want to increase the overall btc, then move it to drk, or ltc, depending on how they are doing. I think long term Eth will change the future.
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IvanLabrie PRO Noobincrypt
a year ago
I'll monitor the btcusd situation closely, I'm in ETH and will cash out partially once I see it fit.
Maybe sending funds in BTC to a forex broker meanwhile, or back to usd and cash.
For now, need to see how this uptrend pans out.
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Ok, in the trade and watching rgmov is showing we are retracing the first advance, hopefully not retesting the mode.
Once rgmov points up and forms a new high price will surge. Volume action has been positive, but we should be seeing higher volume as we move higher up, otherwise it might just be a short squeeze rally.
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ETH waiting for FOMC? Sluggish price action here.
I'll look into rebalancing if we rally a bit. Maybe it would be smarter to go to usd, but we'll see.
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bhsl IvanLabrie
a year ago
Sorry, but what is FOMC?
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IvanLabrie PRO bhsl
a year ago
A Federal Reserve event, it affects all markets, maybe btcusd too.
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Should be heading up this week.
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Noobincrypt PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
snapshot
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IvanLabrie PRO Noobincrypt
a year ago
Looks good.
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Closed 75% of the long to be safe, price action was too sluggish.
Waiting now.
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herkuljee IvanLabrie
a year ago
keeping in bitcoins or dollars? what is a good price area to start buying again eth?
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IvanLabrie PRO herkuljee
a year ago
I'm rebalancing, dollars would be ideal, but how to hold dollars at poloniex? USDT?
low liquidity, and not sure if that's reliable enough.
I buy back in when it drops 5%+ and sell enough once it rallies10%+ to keep the btc and eth allocation on par.
We should see price hold above 0.00463, if below if can fall sharply.
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Nice rally, I went back to 70/30 weigh in btc vs eth.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
Using the 70/30 split and 5%+ rebalance per day, I made the following progression:

Profit/loss in BTC:

100%, 101.99%, 103.13%, 109.05%, 136.65%

Which is quite nice!

Now in a 25/75% split, I need to buy some more ETH but will wait a bit.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
I'm back at 30/70% after buying at 0.0058.
Now waiting. Enough for today.
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herkuljee IvanLabrie
a year ago
Yeah, it worked nicely. Let's see how long this goes on...
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Someone wanted to buy big judging by that huge volume spike with no price movement.
We might see more rallying here.
Building up the mode, we have time for a rally.
I'll keep rebalancing with 5+% swings. 70/30% btc/eth
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Noobincrypt PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
i got mostly out at the resistance around 59x and 6xx, id like to see some retracement, if we break up past 62x 63x i may get back in when it comes back to 60x
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IvanLabrie PRO Noobincrypt
a year ago
Time's running out for the 17 bar uptrend. We need to see a huge move soon. Or we will be able to buy back lower. (I'm not exiting, just rebalancing per 5% swing, if using stops, you'd have to get out if time expires and target isn't reached.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
)
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Latest polo chart: https://cryptrader.com/c/0vQtrk9z
Target is 0.01+-.
20 bar rally.
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I like how it's accelerating. :)
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
Sold 2% of my ETH, now back down to 30%/70%.
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Noobincrypt PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
careful, deposits on cryptsy and poloniex still down cause of blockchain issues
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IvanLabrie PRO Noobincrypt
a year ago
and what do you think this will cause?
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See this one, it's looking extremely similar (before lift off):
JACK - Jack-In-The-Box - Daily -Ready to breakout!
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herkuljee IvanLabrie
a year ago
For this Augur project (ETH crown jewellery) would be best if price is down before Aug 22nd, 12:00pm (EST) and before each discount period so that people can invest with good ratio. Also best that price is up the last crowdsale week when ratio is calculated. see https://sale.augur.net and https://www.reddit.com/r/Augur/comments/3gutnc/questions_on_btceth_and_crowdsale/
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IvanLabrie PRO herkuljee
a year ago
Interesting.
Well, I won't invest in that, I have no way to know the outcome.
It's promising for sure, as long as it isn't yet another scam.
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herkuljee herkuljee
a year ago
Don't know off course how much this affect... If we go now for 13 bar down trend it would give support to that
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Noobincrypt PRO herkuljee
a year ago
thx for reminding me, i will wait for just before the close of the bonus to see whats the better to invest in. is it the same share break down using BTC and ETH? Can I sell my rep later or what is the use?
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herkuljee Noobincrypt
a year ago
it is same. which leave room for speculation as eth much more volatile. prices come from last week's average (that's what i read). rep is used inside augur and there will be a system to buy/sell.
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Update:

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20 bar mode is clear. We now test the previous downtrend mode. If above, we can retest the highest high in the uptrend, and even go for new highs above it.
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herkuljee IvanLabrie
a year ago
Nice! So we would start new mode and create new lower resistance only if option 4 or 5? Where would that new bearish level would be set, in 0.735?

In Kraken there's 900btc wall between #3 and #4, in Polo only 375btc. Probably going to see Polo going way faster and Kraken meet on the way down.
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IvanLabrie PRO herkuljee
a year ago
For now yes. If the uptrend fails to meet the target on time it might fall.
Not likely, and if it does it would create a new bigger than 20 bars mode, forcing me to analyze the daily timeframe.
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Noobincrypt PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
ive been in and out a few times 0.0058x-0.006x, waiting now in eth to see if we bounce up a bit
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IvanLabrie PRO Noobincrypt
a year ago
I buy 5%+ drops and sell 5%+, maintaining a 30/70% eth-btc allocation in my portfolio.
If margin trading, the stop above is the way to go.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
Here's an example of the significance of highest low/lowest high trendlines:

https://cryptrader.com/c/vFB8ZRBE
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Range expansion was stopped in here but not in poloniex.
Still buying 5%+ dips/selling 5% rallies.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
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More info, new mode higher up = trend up if above the mode.
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Lagging a lot, seems like we have an interesting accumulation phase.
When do we have fundamental releases coming next?
I'll continue to play the 5%+ swings for the time being, and lending, not much more to do.
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Update:

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minhthanhqnv IvanLabrie
a year ago
nice
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Bought the dip again.
We can unload partially at the mode, 0.0058.
should be an easy target.
LTC might be outperformed by ETH now:
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herkuljee IvanLabrie
a year ago
http://dapps.ethercasts.com shows eth fueled releases. Nothing hyped coming anytime soon. EtherEx (and other decentralised exchanges) might have some potential especially lack of trust getting bigger to even BitFinex etc. But launch still far away. Anyway, some decent growth in new project entries so the eth concept not dead. If not up soon we may go down to wait Oct 1 Augur crowdsale end pump.
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IvanLabrie PRO herkuljee
a year ago
Great, thanks for the updates.
I'm not 100% involved with the fundamentals right now, although some of my friends do like to keep up.
I decided on an investing style approach for that reason, while accumulating coins, I generate passive profits, buying and selling on swings.
Are you doing the same?
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herkuljee IvanLabrie
a year ago
I do/follow many things and mostly operate via intuition. Lately spending more time learning about trading and cryptos/blockchain. I started buying btc this summer when around 200 and cashed seconds before the big drop. Just followed twitter to see when the white smoke from greece negotiations come out. When eth came to kraken I did pretty much the same but I know I have been lucky... Now I am learning more about the technical aspect of trading. It's an interesting world and gives a lot more to understand also the global economy in general (especially now in crisis).. If eth doesn't collapse and I still have my profits I am planning to start putting into some new blockchain projects and hoping to catch a rising star. I am also into crowdfunding..
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minhthanhqnv herkuljee
a year ago
I think ETH near collapse
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IvanLabrie PRO minhthanhqnv
a year ago
No, it's low volume drift. Nothing can be deduced from the charts right now.
Won't do anything without fundamental news I think.
I'm lending for interest yields and buying and selling 5%+ swings to rebalance and stay at 30% of my btc allocation in ETH as planned.
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herkuljee IvanLabrie
a year ago
Maybe calm before the storm.. Some buy wall accumulating.. Funny how eth google search popularity also went relatively down after 14 Aug. https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=ethereum%2C%20augur%2C%20litecoin%2C%20blockchain%2C%20ripple&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q&tz=Etc%2FGMT-7 Numbers are relative not actual search.
Anyways, Sunday buyers hopefully start uptrend. Then we would need some big buys to find our way to previous higher mode(?)
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tester2014 herkuljee
a year ago
The question is when is smart money buying in? At 0.0051? Too risky, smart money waits for another drop, smart money may be greedy but even more patient.
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IvanLabrie PRO tester2014
a year ago
We can't speculate like you propose, your arguments simply have no empirical base.
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IvanLabrie PRO herkuljee
a year ago
Once we see volume pick up, we will know something's up. Smart money like tester2014 says, is patient, and wants to sneak in their buys, but they leave trails in the charts.
The tendency here would be to see price either return to the previous fair value area, or form a new one, a new fair accepted price while it consolidates around a new mode. For it to start trending in search of new fair value, we need a fundamental reason, no one will push the price up for free, or at their expense if they don't think value might be higher than where it currently sits.

I can reccomend 4 books that have helped me grasp these concepts, apart from reading Tim West's charts here:

#1 George Soros "Alchemy of finance"
#2 James Dalton "Markets in profile"
#3 David Weis "Trades about to happen"
#4 Glenn Neely "Mastering Elliott Wave" (then read his pattern updates and his Q&A section at his site)

Good way to kill time while we wait for moves to occurr.
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minhthanhqnv IvanLabrie
a year ago
eth down now
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IvanLabrie PRO minhthanhqnv
a year ago
It shouldn't make you lose your sleep.
It's not moving, so I don't see where it's going down, as you say. It's simply hibernating.
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yen21 IvanLabrie
a year ago
Thanks! will try to read these ones. to me,seems like climbing a mountain
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yen21 IvanLabrie
a year ago
here we go for the rally :)
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tester2014 yen21
a year ago
just when i'm busy working and creating wealth, i don't have time to make money:)
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yen21 tester2014
a year ago
creating wealth for people? plz make me rich friend!
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IvanLabrie PRO yen21
a year ago
Boom, told ya so...back to the mode soon. Let's see what happens next. Tomorrow's a huge day for the global markets.
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minhthanhqnv IvanLabrie
a year ago
Tomorrow all will collapse ....
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moorekapital PRO minhthanhqnv
a year ago
lol How do you mean?
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minhthanhqnv moorekapital
a year ago
tomorrow who buy low price will sell out.
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IvanLabrie PRO minhthanhqnv
a year ago
Don't be so pessimistic.
Being so involved emotionally is bad for your trading performance.
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yen21 IvanLabrie
a year ago
How can you explain this massive buy?
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IvanLabrie PRO yen21
a year ago
We can't. We can trade it, but we can't explain the reasons it happens.

If we close above the higher mode this is REALLY bullish.
All I can say is, don't sell.

https://cryptrader.com/c/8XDq0umt

Buys under 0.00559798 are good, as long as we don't go back under today's open.
Should be an easy retest of the highs, or even a new rally from here.
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tester2014 yen21
a year ago
eth entered officially the pump and dump territory - anyone with 50k can now move the price 5 or even 10% up or down given the right timing and exchange
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IvanLabrie PRO tester2014
a year ago
How can you tell?
Post a chart?
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tester2014 IvanLabrie
a year ago
you have to compare the eth trade at different exchanges polo, kraken, gatecoin and then look where the price push or drop comes from usually you can identify where it's from. the flashcrash 6 days ago came from kraken - somebody specifically chose the low volume to push the price down - there is no other explaination for missing out 10-14% of price. it's fearmongering. yesterday/ last night the buy came from kraken eur 20k.
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IvanLabrie PRO tester2014
a year ago
Yes, I see what you mean.
I go by the highest liquidity exchange but maybe an index chart would be better.
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yen21 tester2014
a year ago
the pump and dump fact is nothing new about cryptocurrency
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IvanLabrie PRO yen21
a year ago
Of course not...but, is it useful to even consider these things?
I found little value in anecdotical evidence or 'fundamental' analysis here.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
I've*
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yen21 IvanLabrie
a year ago
of course not for a wise trader. but for noobs as i am, i have to consider it. anyway i am a long term holder because i believe in blockchain technology. i told you i appreciate your analysis and your anecdotical evidence. i remember LTC ;)
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IvanLabrie PRO yen21
a year ago
Hehehe. Yes, LTC did rally as I expected, same as BTCUSD before.
Higher liquidity makes it readable. Periods of low volume can't be understood from the chart. That I'm sure of.
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herkuljee IvanLabrie
a year ago
China week start suggests slump. Arrests getting worse (means frustration and no control over market by gov) plus Goldman cut growth expectations (those numbers matter still to some people). I think last week bounce in DOJ etc is only short term. Bad fundamentals and news may accumulate again some time and then we go down again big. This is just my intuition. Big picture question is what is the effect of continuous US treasures and assets selling by EM and Saudis to support their FX.
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IvanLabrie PRO herkuljee
a year ago
The markets might crash as soon as today. This enviroment might be good for bitcoin and other electronic currencies/descentralized platforms.
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See updated idea:
ETHXBT: Update
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minhthanhqnv IvanLabrie
a year ago
I see the wrong chart (0003)
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